Today’s Slate — 5 games
TB @ ATL
12:15 pm ET
Hot 88°F 3 mph CROSS
HOU @ PHI
1:05 pm ET
Hot 88°F 9 mph OUT
TEX @ SEA
4:10 pm ET
66°F
COL @ NYY
7:05 pm ET
✓ Confirmed
80°F 6 mph CROSS
PIT @ CWS
7:40 pm ET
✓ Confirmed
69°F 9 mph CROSS
Board’s live · Thursday, September 10, 2026

The Lab
Never Lies.

Every morning the sharpest plays on the board hit the page. The edge, the price, the book, and the reasoning. Nothing else.

On the board today17
Last 7 days109–134
Units+17.5u
LAB · 2026PHIPHI
LAB PLAY
OF THE DAY
TotalsPHI1:05 pm ET
HOU @ PHI
Totals Over 8.5-110FD
PHI
The edge
+9.8pp
Confidence
B53

The Lab leads with HOU @ PHI Totals Over 8.5. The Lab makes it about a 50% shot, and that’s a 9.8-point edge over where the number’s priced. That’s the play.

Last 7 daysHow the board has graded out this week
Record109–134
Units+17.5u
Win rate45%

Top 3 from Yesterday

The biggest cashes from last night's board, ranked by units. The Lab was loudest here and it landed.

No. 1 · +6.4u day
William Contreras
HR Over 0.5 · +640
+6.4u
Cashed
No. 2 · +5.4u day
Elly De La Cruz
HR Over 0.5 · +537
+5.4u
Cashed
No. 3 · +5.2u day
Carter Jensen
HR Over 0.5 · +517
+5.2u
Cashed

Follow the Lab @CTBetz_

The full board drops every morning on X. The plays, the prices, and last night’s grades. No noise, just the work.

@CTBetz_

Park Factors

How tonight’s 5 yards bend offense, the live wind read over each field, game-time temp, the model’s combined HR environment, and the full stadium dynamics under each row. A positive % favors hitters, negative favors pitchers. 4 live · 1 calc.

LIVE WX
VenueWeatherHR factorRuns factorTempEnv HRRoof
Truist Park ATLTB @ ATL · 12:15 pm ET
LIVE
N
CROSS 3 mph
🌡 88°F💧 54%🌧 1%
⚖️ +1%neutral⚖️ +2%neutral88°+2.0%open

Stadium dynamics

LF line335 ft
CF400 ft
RF line325 ft
LCF alley385 ft
RCF alley375 ft
Wall heightLF 16 ft · CF 8 ft · RF 16 ft
RoofOpen
SurfaceGrass
Wind sensitivity3 / 5
Elevation940 ft
CF orientation145° (SE)
Foul territory23,000 sqft
Quirks · Slight heat boost
Citizens Bank Park PHIHOU @ PHI · 1:05 pm ET
LIVE
N
OUT 9 mph · carry
🌡 88°F💧 52%🌧 1%
🚀 +28%launch pad🔥 +12%hitter-friendly88°+30.0%open

Stadium dynamics

LF line329 ft
CF401 ft
RF line330 ft
LCF alley374 ft
RCF alley369 ft
Wall heightLF 10 ft · CF 8 ft · RF 13 ft
RoofOpen
SurfaceGrass
Wind sensitivity2 / 5
Elevation20 ft
CF orientation9° (N)
Foul territory22,000 sqft
Quirks · Hitter-friendly dimensions
T-Mobile Park SEATEX @ SEA · 4:10 pm ET
CALC
N
Calm · no wind read
🌡 66°F💧 77%🌧 0%
⚖️ -1%neutral❄️ -11%pitcher park66°-3.0%retract

Stadium dynamics

LF line331 ft
CF401 ft
RF line326 ft
LCF alley378 ft
RCF alley381 ft
Wall heightLF 8 ft · CF 8 ft · RF 8 ft
RoofRetractable
SurfaceGrass
Wind sensitivity2 / 5
Elevation10 ft
CF orientation49° (NE)
Foul territory22,500 sqft
Quirks · Spacious alleys; pitcher-lean
Yankee Stadium NYYCOL @ NYY · 7:05 pm ET
LIVE
N
CROSS 6 mph
🌡 80°F💧 50%🌧 1%
🚀 +22%launch pad⚖️ +1%neutral80°+29.1%open

Stadium dynamics

LF line318 ft
CF408 ft
RF line314 ft
LCF alley399 ft
RCF alley385 ft
Wall heightLF 8 ft · CF 8 ft · RF 8 ft
RoofOpen
SurfaceGrass
Wind sensitivity2 / 5
Elevation55 ft
CF orientation75° (E)
Foul territory22,000 sqft
Quirks · Short RF porch
Rate Field CWSPIT @ CHW · 7:40 pm ET
LIVE
N
CROSS 9 mph
🌡 69°F💧 71%🌧 0%
🌥 -7%slight pitcher🌥 -5%slight pitcher69°-7.3%open

Stadium dynamics

LF line330 ft
CF400 ft
RF line335 ft
LCF alley375 ft
RCF alley367 ft
Wall heightLF 8 ft · CF 8 ft · RF 8 ft
RoofOpen
SurfaceGrass
Wind sensitivity3 / 5
Elevation590 ft
CF orientation127° (SE)
Foul territory23,000 sqft
Quirks · Fair dimensions

First Pitch

Every game on tonight's board in order of first pitch. Pitching matchup, the weather over the yard, park factors, and both batting orders the second they post.

R RightL LeftS SwitchConfirmedProjected
5 GAMES
TB @ ATL12:15 pm ET
Truist ParkLocked
Away starterR Nick Martinez
P-score29Proj K4.4Est IP5.5
VS
Home starterL Martin Perez
P-score32Proj K3.9Est IP4.9
88°F4 mph 184° SHumidity 54%Rain 1%
HR+1%Runs+2%Elev940 ft
TB AwayConfirmed
  1. 1.0RYandy DíazDH
  2. 2.0RRyan Vilade1B
  3. 3.0RJunior Caminero3B
  4. 4.0RJonny DeLucaRF
  5. 5.0LChandler SimpsonLF
  6. 6.0RNick Madrigal2B
  7. 7.0RJorge MateoSS
  8. 8.0RNick FortesC
  9. 9.0LCedric MullinsCF
ATL HomeConfirmed
  1. 1.0LDrake BaldwinC
  2. 2.0RRonald Acuña Jr.RF
  3. 3.0LMatt Olson1B
  4. 4.0LMichael Harris IICF
  5. 5.0RMauricio Dubón2B
  6. 6.0Dominic SmithDH
  7. 7.0RAustin Riley3B
  8. 8.0RBrewer HicklenLF
  9. 9.0RHa-Seong KimSS
HOU @ PHI1:05 pm ET
Citizens Bank ParkLocked
Away starterR Cristian Javier
P-score58Proj K4.6Est IP4.5
VS
Home starterR Zack Wheeler
P-score85Proj K6.1Est IP5.2
88°F12 mph 271° WHumidity 52%Rain 1%
HR+28%Runs+12%Elev20 ft
HOU AwayConfirmed
  1. 1.0RJeremy PeñaSS
  2. 2.0LYordan AlvarezDH
  3. 3.0RIsaac Paredes3B
  4. 4.0RJose Altuve2B
  5. 5.0LDaulton VarshoCF
  6. 6.0RChristian Walker1B
  7. 7.0RCam SmithRF
  8. 8.0LTaylor TrammellLF
  9. 9.0RChristian VázquezC
PHI HomeConfirmed
  1. 1.0LKyle SchwarberDH
  2. 2.0RTrea TurnerSS
  3. 3.0LBryce HarperRF
  4. 4.0LLuis Arraez2B
  5. 5.0RAlec Bohm1B
  6. 6.0LBryson Stott3B
  7. 7.0LBrandon MarshLF
  8. 8.0LJustin CrawfordCF
  9. 9.0RRafael MarchánC
TEX @ SEA4:10 pm ET
T-Mobile ParkLocked
Away starterR Jacob deGrom
P-score85Proj K6.6Est IP5.4
VS
Home starterR Logan Gilbert
P-score72Proj K6.0Est IP5.1
66°F4 mph 173° SHumidity 77%Rain 0%
HR-1%Runs-11%Elev10 ft
TEX AwayConfirmed
  1. 1.0LJoc PedersonDH
  2. 2.0LCorey SeagerSS
  3. 3.0REzequiel Duran3B
  4. 4.0LBrandon NimmoRF
  5. 5.0RWyatt LangfordLF
  6. 6.0LEvan CarterCF
  7. 7.0RJake Burger1B
  8. 8.0Nicky Lopez2B
  9. 9.0Danny JansenC
SEA HomeConfirmed
  1. 1.0LJ.P. CrawfordSS
  2. 2.0RRandy ArozarenaLF
  3. 3.0LDominic CanzoneDH
  4. 4.0SCal RaleighC
  5. 5.0RJulio RodríguezCF
  6. 6.0LJosh Naylor1B
  7. 7.0LCole Young2B
  8. 8.0RLazaro MontesRF
  9. 9.0SBrock Rodden3B
COL @ NYY7:05 pm ET
Yankee StadiumConfirmed
Away starterR Ryan Feltner
P-score31Proj K4.2Est IP4.8
VS
Home starterL Max Fried
P-score54Proj K5.3Est IP5.1
80°F6 mph 324° NWHumidity 50%Rain 1%
HR+22%Runs+1%Elev55 ft
COL AwayConfirmed
  1. 1.0LJake McCarthyLF
  2. 2.0RConnor Norby2B
  3. 3.0RHunter GoodmanC
  4. 4.0LTJ Rumfield1B
  5. 5.0SCole CarriggCF
  6. 6.0RKyle Karros3B
  7. 7.0SAdael AmadorDH
  8. 8.0RJordan BeckRF
  9. 9.0REzequiel TovarSS
NYY HomeConfirmed
  1. 1.0LBen RiceDH
  2. 2.0LCody BellingerLF
  3. 3.0Jasson DomínguezRF
  4. 4.0LLuis García Jr.1B
  5. 5.0LSpencer JonesCF
  6. 6.0RGeorge Lombard Jr.SS
  7. 7.0LRyan McMahon3B
  8. 8.0LAustin WellsC
  9. 9.0Anthony Volpe2B
PIT @ CWS7:40 pm ET
Rate FieldConfirmed
Away starterR Jared Jones
P-score80Proj K6.4Est IP5.1
VS
Home starterL Hagen Smith 🔄 OPN
P-score66Proj K4.1Est IP2.6
69°F9 mph 47° NEHumidity 71%Rain 0%
HR-7%Runs-5%Elev590 ft
PIT AwayConfirmed
  1. 1.0RKonnor GriffinDH
  2. 2.0LOneil CruzCF
  3. 3.0SBryan ReynoldsLF
  4. 4.0RNick Gonzales3B
  5. 5.0LBrandon Lowe2B
  6. 6.0RRafael Flores Jr.C
  7. 7.0SJake MangumRF
  8. 8.0Spencer Horwitz1B
  9. 9.0Jared TrioloSS
CWS HomeConfirmed
  1. 1.0LSam AntonacciLF
  2. 2.0RMiguel Vargas3B
  3. 3.0LMunetaka Murakami1B
  4. 4.0LAndrew BenintendiDH
  5. 5.0LColson MontgomerySS
  6. 6.0SBraden MontgomeryRF
  7. 7.0RChase Meidroth2B
  8. 8.0LTristan PetersCF
  9. 9.0Jake RogersC

Hitter Pool · 90 hitters

Every gate-passing hitter ranked by H Score, click any column to sort. Avg EV is shown muted/grey when the sample is thin (max EV < 105 mph) — visible, but treat it as low-confidence. Crush flags tonight’s best HR matchups by the pitch-HR-crush signal (🔥🔥 elite · 🔥 hot · • warm); blank means no crush edge tonight.
HitterMatchTime#H ScoreHR ScoreHR OddsModel HFSBarrel%Avg EVCrush
Yandy Diaz RTB @ ATL12:15 pm ET174.642.9+546 DK6.37.45%91.1
Junior Caminero RTB @ ATL12:15 pm ET369.151.9+342 DK6.913.18%92.9
Ryan Vilade RTB @ ATL12:15 pm ET268.858.1+680 DK5.07.58%89.6
Bryce Harper LPHI vs HOU1:05 pm ET367.351.8+311 DK6.310.70%90.2
Aaron Judge RNYY vs COL7:05 pm ET363.074.5+215 FD7.521.22%93.9
Cal Raleigh SSEA vs TEX4:10 pm ET462.366.5+360 MGM3.914.88%89.8
Corey Seager LTEX @ SEA4:10 pm ET259.872.3+395 DK5.115.15%91.5🔥 HOT
TJ Rumfield LCOL @ NYY7:05 pm ET458.750.1+910 DK3.95.08%84.3
Kyle Schwarber LPHI vs HOU1:05 pm ET157.266.5+196 FD6.817.00%92.5
Ben Rice LNYY vs COL7:05 pm ET156.860.2+288 DK6.214.41%92.0
Braden Montgomery SCWS vs PIT7:40 pm ET656.130.7+900 FD2.74.17%88.4
Alec Bohm RPHI vs HOU1:05 pm ET555.148.3+590 DK6.05.97%90.5
Drake Baldwin LATL vs TB12:15 pm ET154.365.8+456 DK4.613.04%91.7
Matt Olson LATL vs TB12:15 pm ET353.063.0+285 FD5.514.85%92.7
Lazaro Montes RSEA vs TEX4:10 pm ET751.369.3+630 DK1.628.57%90.8
Tristan Peters LCWS vs PIT7:40 pm ET750.936.5+800 FD3.05.91%84.7
Spencer Jones LNYY vs COL7:05 pm ET549.468.4+350 MGM5.515.67%94.4
Ronald Acuna Jr. RATL vs TB12:15 pm ET248.755.7+416 DK6.512.51%90.4🔥 HOT
Luis Garcia LNYY vs COL7:05 pm ET448.664.7+330 FD5.712.28%91.6
Bryson Stott LPHI vs HOU1:05 pm ET648.333.6+575 MGM5.66.16%89.2
Kyle Teel LCWS vs PIT7:40 pm ET948.154.5+800 MGM2.713.45%84.3
Yordan Alvarez LHOU @ PHI1:05 pm ET247.542.6+270 MGM6.916.24%94.4
Kyle Karros RCOL @ NYY7:05 pm ET247.543.1+930 DK3.98.09%89.1
Miguel Vargas RCWS vs PIT7:40 pm ET246.730.6+540 FD5.113.54%90.6
Joc Pederson LTEX @ SEA4:10 pm ET145.872.1+497 DK4.111.30%91.8• WARM
Michael Harris II LATL vs TB12:15 pm ET444.551.8+408 DK5.510.48%90.0
Isaac Paredes RHOU @ PHI1:05 pm ET344.526.2+580 DK5.44.88%86.1
Esmerlyn Valdez RPIT @ CWS7:40 pm ET244.057.1+380 MGM3.220.05%91.9
Dominic Canzone LSEA vs TEX4:10 pm ET243.054.7+470 FD3.211.34%90.7
Cody Bellinger LNYY vs COL7:05 pm ET243.045.0+450 FD5.86.17%89.1
Austin Riley RATL vs TB12:15 pm ET743.062.4+455 DK3.812.17%91.4
Brewer Hicklen RATL vs TB12:15 pm ET842.746.9+650 MGM3.210.00%90.6
Luis Arraez LPHI vs HOU1:05 pm ET442.235.6+1140 DK5.11.14%86.2
Jake McCarthy LCOL @ NYY7:05 pm ET142.134.3+1120 DK5.15.27%83.3
Mauricio Dubon RATL vs TB12:15 pm ET540.434.0+970 DK4.43.77%86.3
Adael Amador SCOL @ NYY7:05 pm ET840.044.1+960 DK2.711.78%84.1
Wyatt Langford RTEX @ SEA4:10 pm ET339.047.5+456 DK5.26.65%88.9🔥 HOT
Andrew Benintendi LCWS vs PIT7:40 pm ET438.836.7+600 FD3.78.71%88.9
Sam Antonacci LCWS vs PIT7:40 pm ET137.921.5+875 MGM4.14.99%87.1
Jose Caballero RNYY vs COL7:05 pm ET937.732.0+650 MGM5.24.21%81.4
Munetaka Murakami LCWS vs PIT7:40 pm ET337.251.8+333 DK3.018.96%93.9🔥 HOT
J.P. Crawford LSEA vs TEX4:10 pm ET836.726.1+1040 DK2.45.60%87.2
Brandon Nimmo LTEX @ SEA4:10 pm ET436.752.4+650 MGM3.59.95%92.3
Bryan Reynolds SPIT @ CWS7:40 pm ET336.629.8+550 MGM4.911.74%91.0
Nick Madrigal RTB @ ATL12:15 pm ET636.235.84.00.00%88.8
Chandler Simpson LTB @ ATL12:15 pm ET535.718.7+2500 MGM4.70.00%81.7
Jake Burger RTEX @ SEA4:10 pm ET635.454.1+430 FD3.312.32%90.2🔥 HOT
Cedric Mullins LTB @ ATL12:15 pm ET935.340.2+650 DK5.14.38%85.6
Trea Turner RPHI vs HOU1:05 pm ET234.834.6+470 FD6.46.50%88.4
Nick Fortes RTB @ ATL12:15 pm ET834.618.9+1160 DK3.72.15%84.6
Connor Norby RCOL @ NYY7:05 pm ET634.230.9+760 DK3.87.70%86.7• WARM
Randy Arozarena RSEA vs TEX4:10 pm ET134.133.8+558 DK4.87.89%90.6• WARM
Julio Rodriguez RSEA vs TEX4:10 pm ET333.850.6+555 DK4.48.99%90.2
Konnor Griffin RPIT @ CWS7:40 pm ET533.833.0+584 DK4.07.98%87.3
Brandon Marsh LPHI vs HOU1:05 pm ET733.539.3+520 FD5.28.42%88.9
Josh Naylor LSEA vs TEX4:10 pm ET533.127.9+940 DK2.94.39%86.6
Ryan McMahon LNYY vs COL7:05 pm ET733.033.6+535 DK4.58.93%90.2
Justin Crawford LPHI vs HOU1:05 pm ET833.026.6+1200 FD4.21.28%86.2
Hunter Goodman RCOL @ NYY7:05 pm ET332.647.4+366 DK4.515.14%90.3🔥 HOT
Rafael Flores RPIT @ CWS7:40 pm ET632.439.9+525 MGM4.115.25%91.0
Daulton Varsho LHOU @ PHI1:05 pm ET532.337.4+491 DK4.46.76%86.1
Evan Carter LTEX @ SEA4:10 pm ET731.151.0+930 DK3.35.42%86.0• WARM
Brock Rodden SSEA vs TEX4:10 pm ET931.031.4+820 FD1.53.02%87.4
Lane Thomas RATL vs TB12:15 pm ET630.725.2+591 DK3.86.38%89.3
Ha-seong Kim RATL vs TB12:15 pm ET930.230.0+940 DK2.82.86%86.0
Austin Wells LNYY vs COL7:05 pm ET830.236.5+520 FD4.56.77%88.5
Jose Altuve RHOU @ PHI1:05 pm ET429.918.4+980 DK4.84.47%85.1
Cole Young LSEA vs TEX4:10 pm ET629.530.1+790 FD3.24.86%87.9
Jeremy Pena RHOU @ PHI1:05 pm ET128.739.8+630 DK5.76.53%88.5
Christian Walker RHOU @ PHI1:05 pm ET628.731.9+588 DK4.58.59%89.0
Colson Montgomery LCWS vs PIT7:40 pm ET528.636.5+366 DK3.012.61%88.9🔥 HOT
Ezequiel Duran RTEX @ SEA4:10 pm ET528.251.9+780 DK3.56.25%88.2🔥 HOT
Cole Carrigg SCOL @ NYY7:05 pm ET528.025.9+870 FD3.45.53%86.3
George Lombard Jr. RNYY vs COL7:05 pm ET627.827.7+680 FD3.86.23%85.6
Rafael Marchan RPHI vs HOU1:05 pm ET927.623.4+830 DK3.82.68%82.6
Elias Diaz RTEX @ SEA4:10 pm ET927.348.3+800 MGM2.59.04%87.4
Taylor Trammell LHOU @ PHI1:05 pm ET826.839.7+600 FD3.611.78%87.1
Jonny DeLuca RTB @ ATL12:15 pm ET425.924.2+890 DK5.13.40%84.4
Nick Gonzales RPIT @ CWS7:40 pm ET125.618.5+920 DK4.52.86%86.0
Jorge Mateo RTB @ ATL12:15 pm ET725.129.6+920 DK5.28.42%87.0
Cody Freeman RTEX @ SEA4:10 pm ET824.735.3+1500 DK2.01.54%82.4
Christian Vazquez RHOU @ PHI1:05 pm ET924.628.2+1200 DK3.02.19%84.9
Chase Meidroth RCWS vs PIT7:40 pm ET824.515.9+1300 FD3.03.88%86.2
Cam Smith RHOU @ PHI1:05 pm ET724.335.3+680 DK4.911.31%89.2• WARM
Oneil Cruz LPIT @ CWS7:40 pm ET723.544.9+431 DK4.616.65%95.0
Ezequiel Tovar RCOL @ NYY7:05 pm ET923.351.4+1020 DK2.26.57%86.0
Brandon Lowe LPIT @ CWS7:40 pm ET422.737.8+412 DK4.511.28%90.9• WARM
Jordan Beck RCOL @ NYY7:05 pm ET721.827.3+850 DK2.74.11%85.0
Jake Mangum SPIT @ CWS7:40 pm ET819.117.1+1300 FD4.01.94%83.6
Henry Davis RPIT @ CWS7:40 pm ET917.115.3+680 FD2.59.12%88.7

Arm Pool · 10 probable starters

Every probable starting pitcher, click any column to sort. P Score = Stuff (30%) + Command (25%) + Matchup (25%) + Environment (20%). Stuff+ is the FanGraphs pitch-quality metric (avg = 100; A+ = elite, D = below-average; tooltip shows Pitching+). CSW% (called strikes + whiffs) is the best single-number proxy for pure stuff. PP PFS is PrizePicks-weighted (K=3, outs=1, ER=−3, W=6, QS=4). Arm grades how tough the arm is to square up tonight (A = tough, F = crushable / meatball mix).
PitcherMatchTimeP ScoreStuff+Proj KWhiff%CSW%K%Opp K%Est IPProj ERPP PFSArm
Zack Wheeler RDOMPHI vs HOU1:05 pm ET85.1A− · 1056.1031.2%30.3%30.1%21.7%5.242.3532.1B
Jacob deGrom RDOMTEX @ SEA4:10 pm ET84.5A− · 1096.5933.8%30.8%29.7%23.3%5.431.6232.5B
Jared Jones RPIT @ CWS7:40 pm ET80.4B+ · 1016.4231.9%31.0%27.2%24.0%5.091.8230.7C
Logan Gilbert RDOMSEA vs TEX4:10 pm ET72.4A− · 1106.0229.7%29.5%25.9%22.7%5.111.7431.2C
Hagen Smith LEHROPNCWS vs PIT7:40 pm ET66.2A− · 1094.0735.0%35.9%36.2%24.2%2.600.8818.0B
Cristian Javier REHRHOU @ PHI1:05 pm ET57.8B · 1004.6329.5%28.0%22.1%22.1%4.482.5020.9C
Max Fried LNYY vs COL7:05 pm ET53.6A− · 1065.2624.7%28.7%24.1%23.0%5.111.7630.0C
Martin Perez LATL vs TB12:15 pm ET32.2C− · 863.9121.5%27.2%18.8%18.4%4.922.3918.0D
Ryan Feltner REHRCOL @ NYY7:05 pm ET30.5C · 924.1723.8%26.2%16.9%24.7%4.772.7720.4D
Nick Martinez RTB @ ATL12:15 pm ET29.0B · 984.3917.5%26.1%14.5%21.8%5.482.4122.4D

Today’s Best Edges

The highest-EV plays on the board across pitchers, hitters and games. Every card carries the edge, the confidence, the price and the book. Open one for the full read.

On the board7
HRRJunior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TB @ ATL
12:15 pm ET
★ Top edge
H+R+RBI · Over 3.5+240FDKalshi 24¢ → +308
The edge
+14.2pp
Confidence
B+69
Barrel%11.1Avg EV91.9Max EV116
Opp SP Martin PerezC− · 86 · Pit+ 91

Caminero sits on sinkers — .484 xwOBA — and Martín Pérez throws them 40% of the time.

The read

Caminero sits on sinkers — .484 xwOBA — and Martín Pérez throws them 40% of the time.

In the three spot, where the volume meets the power.

Take it — this is the high-floor hitter pick of the slate.

The Bat

Barreling at 11.1% — comfortably above the league norm, with pop to all fields.

Average exit velo of 91.9 mph is strong — the bat speed plays.

A 115.5 mph max EV says the thunder is there on his best swings.

The Matchup

Crushes sinkers (0.484 xwOBA) — and Martín Pérez is heavy on them at 40% usage.

The Spot

The 3-hole is prime real estate: volume plus the meat of the order around him.

F5 TOTHOU @ PHI
HOU @ PHI
HOU @ PHI
1:05 pm ET
F5 Total · Over 4.5-110FD
The edge
+11.0pp
Confidence
B52
Proj runs6.3Implied52%Edge+11.0pp

Model has the edge here — the price doesn't reflect it.

The read

Model has the edge here — the price doesn't reflect it.

Both SP's wobble early — F5 Over plays.

The Conditions

A 1.22 run environment is a hitter's backdrop: warm air, helpful wind, friendly park.

The opposing pen is a soft spot — late-inning runs are in play, and the model leans in.

The Number

Model projects 6.29 runs vs the 4.5 line — Over-side edge.

TOTALHOU @ PHI
HOU @ PHI
HOU @ PHI
1:05 pm ET
Total · Over 8.5-110FD
The edge
+9.8pp
Confidence
B53
Proj runs11.8Implied52%Edge+9.8pp

Park and weather are pushing this total — Citizens Bank Park plays +12% on runs tonight.

The read

Park and weather are pushing this total — Citizens Bank Park plays +12% on runs tonight.

One side's pen has been getting lit lately — late-inning runs are in play.

Bet the Over, the model has it a run+ over the line.

The Conditions

A 1.22 run environment is a hitter's backdrop: warm air, helpful wind, friendly park.

Bullpen edge here: a shaky relief corps nudges the run total up.

The Number

Model projects 11.78 runs vs the 8.5 line — Over-side edge.

HRRJeremy Pena
Jeremy Pena
HOU @ PHI
1:05 pm ET
H+R+RBI · Over 2.5+209DKKalshi 28¢ → +251
The edge
+7.1pp
Confidence
F29
Barrel%10.2Avg EV88.0Max EV107
Opp SP Zack WheelerA− · 105 · Pit+ 112

Pena's comfortable with the four-seam and Zack Wheeler leans on it at 49%.

The read

Pena's comfortable with the four-seam and Zack Wheeler leans on it at 49%.

Weather's pushing balls out at Citizens Bank Park tonight — wind contribution is +13% on HRs.

The park plays a touch HR-friendly tonight.

Take it — this is the high-floor hitter pick of the slate.

The Bat

Barreling at 10.2% — comfortably above the league norm, with pop to all fields.

The Matchup

Handles four-seams well historically (0.404 xwOBA), and Zack Wheeler throws them 49% of the time.

The Spot

Leadoff spot — max plate appearances on the slate, plus a leverage spot for runs scored.

HRRBryce Harper
Bryce Harper
HOU @ PHI
1:05 pm ET
H+R+RBI · Over 2.5+142DKKalshi 36¢ → +174
The edge
+6.3pp
Confidence
B+67
Barrel%10.3Avg EV93.1Max EV108
Opp SP Cristian JavierB · 100 · Pit+ 100

Harper hunts the four-seam (.554) and Cristian Javier throws nothing but — 42% of his mix.

The read

Harper hunts the four-seam (.554) and Cristian Javier throws nothing but — 42% of his mix.

Weather's pushing balls out at Citizens Bank Park tonight — wind contribution is +13% on HRs.

The park plays a touch HR-friendly tonight.

He gets there with one rope and a soft single.

The Bat

Barreling at 10.3% — comfortably above the league norm, with pop to all fields.

He averages 93.1 mph off the bat (elite) — consistent hard contact, not loud outliers.

He's at 53.8% hard-hit — quality of contact is a feature, not a fluke.

The Matchup

Demolishing four-seams — 0.554 xwOBA on 58 batted balls, and Cristian Javier throws them 42% of the time. This is the pitch he's been waiting for.

The Spot

Hitting third — the marquee lineup slot, runs and RBIs both on the menu.

RLCOL @ NYY
COL @ NYY
COL @ NYY
7:05 pm ET
RL · COL · +1.5+110FD
The edge
+0.3pp
Confidence
D41
Implied48%Edge+0.3pp

Model has the edge here — the price doesn't reflect it.

The read

Model has the edge here — the price doesn't reflect it.

Take the +1.5 — the dog's not getting swept.

The Conditions

Conditions favor runs (1.15) — wind, heat, and the ballpark all push the same way.

The Number

Model run-total projection: 1.59.

HRLazaro Montes
Lazaro Montes
TEX @ SEA
4:10 pm ET
Home Run · Over 0.5+630DK
The edge
+0.1pp
Confidence
B+48
Barrel%28.6Avg EV90.8Max EV116
Opp SP Jacob deGromA− · 109 · Pit+ 118

Jacob deGrom carries a meatball flag tonight — vulnerable to the long ball.

The read

Jacob deGrom carries a meatball flag tonight — vulnerable to the long ball.

The catch is batting 7th — only 3 ABs if the game runs normal.

Long-shot hunt, but the work backs it.

The Bat

A 28.6% barrel rate is genuine thump; when he squares one up it leaves in a hurry.

He averages 90.8 mph off the bat (strong) — consistent hard contact, not loud outliers.

A 116.1 mph max EV says the thunder is there on his best swings.

The Spot

The 7-hole is middle of the order; volume is fine if not premium.

HR Score lands strong at 69/100.

The Bats

Where the lumber gets paid. The HR board, plus the hits-runs-RBIs and total-base spots the books left a notch light.

Hitter plays12

Who's Cooking

Pitchers serving the fattest pitches tonight, ranked by the Lab's weighted cook score — not every flag counts the same, so the hottest arm isn't always the one with the most chips. Hitters who mash the dish are listed under each arm.

On the menu3
🍝🔥Derby Host7+ signals🍝Master Chef6+ signals🍝Meatball Chef4+ signals
Logan Gilbert SEA
vs TEX @ T-Mobile Park4:10 pm ET
🍝 Master Chef57 cook score
Cook level
Pitch matchup riskBats who feast on his best pitch
Corey Seager
four-seamerthrown 51% vs LHB
0.330xwOBA
12% barrel
Jake Burger
four-seamerthrown 49% vs RHB
0.339xwOBA
13% barrel
Signals fired
Meatball pitch in the mixBarrels allowedChronic HR/9Fly-ball leaningCrushed on contact
On the boardHRJoc Pederson · HR Over 0.5+497

The word on Logan Gilbert

This guy's cooking with the good stuff, and the lineup's got a standing reservation.

That four-seamer is a gift, and Corey Seager's first in line (0.330 xwOBA).

The tells? meatball pitch in the mix, barrels allowed, chronic HR/9, fly-ball leaning, and crushed on contact.

Weighted out, that's a 57/100 cook score — Master Chef material.

Jacob deGrom TEX
vs SEA @ T-Mobile Park4:10 pm ET
🍝 Meatball Chef48 cook score
Cook level
Pitch matchup riskBats who feast on his best pitch
Dominic Canzone
four-seamerthrown 34% vs LHB
0.435xwOBA
21% barrel
Cal Raleigh
four-seamerthrown 36% vs RHB
0.309xwOBA
19% barrel
Signals fired
Hard-hit bleedChronic HR/9Fly-ball leaningLoud exit velo
On the boardHRLazaro Montes · HR Over 0.5+630

The word on Jacob deGrom

The stuff plays until it doesn't — and tonight it gets hit hard.

That four-seamer is a gift, and Dominic Canzone's first in line (0.435 xwOBA).

The tells? hard-hit bleed, chronic HR/9, fly-ball leaning, and loud exit velo.

Weighted out, that's a 48/100 cook score — Meatball Chef material.

Nick Martinez TB
vs ATL @ Truist Park12:15 pm ET
🍝 Meatball Chef42 cook score
Cook level
Pitch matchup riskBats who feast on his best pitch
Austin Riley
cutterthrown 29% vs RHB
0.395xwOBA
25% barrel
Matt Olson
sinkerthrown 28% vs LHB
0.429xwOBA
14% barrel
Drake Baldwin
sinkerthrown 28% vs LHB
0.395xwOBA
8% barrel
Signals fired
Chronic HR/9Fly-ball leaningLow whiff, loud contact

The word on Nick Martinez

He'll get his outs, but he's handing out souvenirs too.

Austin Riley's the one to fear here, feasting on the cutter (0.395 xwOBA).

Under the hood: chronic HR/9, fly-ball leaning, and low whiff, loud contact.

Add up the weighted tells and the Lab grades him 42/100 — a seat at the Meatball Chef table tonight.

🔵 BLUE MAGICThe official HR board · consensus-verified

Purest product on the board. A bomb only makes Blue Magic when the models agree — and the legacy book has to co-sign it. We cut the middlemen and the noise: the lone-model long shots get left on the corner, and only the bats every desk is pounding stay uncut. The ★ marquee core is where legacy and the kitchen shake on the same name — the strongest, steadiest cut. Same board @CTBetz_ fields by hand. The Lab never lies.

1HRJoc Pederson
Joc Pederson
TEX @ SEA
4:10 pm ET
Home Run · Over 0.5+497DKKalshi 14¢ → +590
The edge
-2.3pp
Confidence
B+52
Barrel%12.1Avg EV92.6Max EV106
Opp SP Logan GilbertA− · 110 · Pit+ 111

Pederson crushes Logan Gilbert's most homer-prone pitch — the four-seam, which he throws 51% of the time..

The read

Pederson crushes Logan Gilbert's most homer-prone pitch — the four-seam, which he throws 51% of the time..

Logan Gilbert's been bleeding home runs — high barrel rate allowed and a low ground-ball share.

His 6-for-21 in his career against this guy.

Fire it — the pricing's wrong.

The Bat

A 12.1% barrel rate plays; he squares up his share and drives the ball with authority.

92.6 mph average EV is elite; the barrel control shows up swing to swing.

Hard-hit rate of 57.6% says he barrels balls consistently, not just on his best swings.

The Matchup

Arsenal fit is favorable — this hitter handles Logan Gilbert's pitch mix well historically.

The Spot

Leadoff spot — max plate appearances on the slate, plus a leverage spot for runs scored.

The model's HR Score grades strong here — 72/100.

2HRCal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh
TEX @ SEA
4:10 pm ET
Home Run · Over 0.5+360MGMKalshi 20¢ → +388
The edge
-8.6pp
Confidence
B45
Barrel%35.5Avg EV94.9Max EV109
Opp SP Jacob deGromA− · 109 · Pit+ 118

Jacob deGrom reads as a meatball chef — enough hard contact allowed to matter in this spot.

The read

Jacob deGrom reads as a meatball chef — enough hard contact allowed to matter in this spot.

Raleigh's 2-for-17, 1 HR in his career against this guy.

Bet it; this profile cashes more than the market thinks.

The Bat

Elite 35.5% barrel rate — plus-plus raw pop, the kind that clears any fence.

He averages 94.9 mph off the bat (elite) — consistent hard contact, not loud outliers.

A 61.3% hard-hit rate points to repeatable thump — the loud contact is the norm.

The Spot

The cleanup spot is an RBI engine; the table is usually set when he's up.

HR Score lands strong at 66/100.

3HRAustin Riley
Austin Riley
TB @ ATL
12:15 pm ET
Home Run · Over 0.5+455DKKalshi 16¢ → +545
The edge
-5.8pp
Confidence
B40
Barrel%17.0Avg EV94.1Max EV111
Opp SP Nick MartinezB · 98 · Pit+ 104

Nick Martinez reads as a meatball chef — enough hard contact allowed to matter in this spot.

The read

Nick Martinez reads as a meatball chef — enough hard contact allowed to matter in this spot.

The catch is batting 7th — only 3 ABs if the game runs normal.

This is the kind of price you bet without overthinking.

The Bat

A 17.0% barrel rate is genuine thump; when he squares one up it leaves in a hurry.

He averages 94.1 mph off the bat (elite) — consistent hard contact, not loud outliers.

Top-end EV of 111.0 mph confirms the raw juice when he squares one up.

Hard-hit rate of 51.1% says he barrels balls consistently, not just on his best swings.

The Spot

Hitting 7th — middle-order spot, decent PA volume.

62/100 on the HR Score — strong on the model's power read.

4HRCorey Seager
Corey Seager
TEX @ SEA
4:10 pm ET
Home Run · Over 0.5+395DKKalshi 18¢ → +441
The edge
-5.7pp
Confidence
B+52
Barrel%15.4Avg EV91.7Max EV107
Opp SP Logan GilbertA− · 110 · Pit+ 111

Seager crushes Logan Gilbert's most homer-prone pitch — the four-seam, which he throws 51% of the time..

The read

Seager crushes Logan Gilbert's most homer-prone pitch — the four-seam, which he throws 51% of the time..

Logan Gilbert keeps leaving them over the plate — barrel rate's up and the grounders have dried up.

His 11-for-37, 1 HR in his career against this guy.

This is the kind of price you bet without overthinking.

The Bat

Barreling at a 15.4% clip — top-shelf raw power, the ball jumps off his bat.

91.7 mph average EV is strong; the barrel control shows up swing to swing.

He's at 56.4% hard-hit — quality of contact is a feature, not a fluke.

The Matchup

Arsenal fit is favorable — this hitter handles Logan Gilbert's pitch mix well historically.

The Spot

Batting second — plenty of trips to the plate, and the leadoff man sets the table.

72/100 on the HR Score — strong on the model's power read.

5HRLazaro Montes
Lazaro Montes
TEX @ SEA
4:10 pm ET
Home Run · Over 0.5+630DK
The edge
+0.1pp
Confidence
B+48
Barrel%28.6Avg EV90.8Max EV116
Opp SP Jacob deGromA− · 109 · Pit+ 118

Jacob deGrom carries a meatball flag tonight — vulnerable to the long ball.

The read

Jacob deGrom carries a meatball flag tonight — vulnerable to the long ball.

The catch is batting 7th — only 3 ABs if the game runs normal.

Long-shot hunt, but the work backs it.

The Bat

A 28.6% barrel rate is genuine thump; when he squares one up it leaves in a hurry.

He averages 90.8 mph off the bat (strong) — consistent hard contact, not loud outliers.

A 116.1 mph max EV says the thunder is there on his best swings.

The Spot

The 7-hole is middle of the order; volume is fine if not premium.

HR Score lands strong at 69/100.

6HRDrake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
TB @ ATL
12:15 pm ET
Home Run · Over 0.5+456DKKalshi 14¢ → +590
The edge
-5.0pp
Confidence
B44
Barrel%13.0Avg EV91.9Max EV109
Opp SP Nick MartinezB · 98 · Pit+ 104

Baldwin doesn't miss sinkers (.489), and that's 32% of Nick Martinez's mix.

The read

Baldwin doesn't miss sinkers (.489), and that's 32% of Nick Martinez's mix.

Nick Martinez carries a meatball flag tonight — vulnerable to the long ball.

Top of the order — he's locked into 5 trips.

Long-shot hunt, but the work backs it.

The Bat

A 13.0% barrel rate plays; he squares up his share and drives the ball with authority.

Average exit velo of 91.9 mph is strong — the bat speed plays.

He's at 53.7% hard-hit — quality of contact is a feature, not a fluke.

The Matchup

Crushes sinkers (0.489 xwOBA) — and Nick Martinez is heavy on them at 32% usage.

The Spot

Top of the order — volume is the edge: more trips to the plate than any other slot.

HR Score lands strong at 66/100.

Hits, runs and RBIs stacked into one number. Top-of-order bats with on-base skill and the speed to score clear the line on the cheap, before any power even shows up.

HRRJeremy Pena
Jeremy Pena
HOU @ PHI
1:05 pm ET
H+R+RBI · Over 2.5+209DKKalshi 28¢ → +251
The edge
+7.1pp
Confidence
F29
Barrel%10.2Avg EV88.0Max EV107
Opp SP Zack WheelerA− · 105 · Pit+ 112

Pena's comfortable with the four-seam and Zack Wheeler leans on it at 49%.

The read

Pena's comfortable with the four-seam and Zack Wheeler leans on it at 49%.

Weather's pushing balls out at Citizens Bank Park tonight — wind contribution is +13% on HRs.

The park plays a touch HR-friendly tonight.

Take it — this is the high-floor hitter pick of the slate.

The Bat

Barreling at 10.2% — comfortably above the league norm, with pop to all fields.

The Matchup

Handles four-seams well historically (0.404 xwOBA), and Zack Wheeler throws them 49% of the time.

The Spot

Leadoff spot — max plate appearances on the slate, plus a leverage spot for runs scored.

HRRBryce Harper
Bryce Harper
HOU @ PHI
1:05 pm ET
H+R+RBI · Over 2.5+142DKKalshi 36¢ → +174
The edge
+6.3pp
Confidence
B+67
Barrel%10.3Avg EV93.1Max EV108
Opp SP Cristian JavierB · 100 · Pit+ 100

Harper hunts the four-seam (.554) and Cristian Javier throws nothing but — 42% of his mix.

The read

Harper hunts the four-seam (.554) and Cristian Javier throws nothing but — 42% of his mix.

Weather's pushing balls out at Citizens Bank Park tonight — wind contribution is +13% on HRs.

The park plays a touch HR-friendly tonight.

He gets there with one rope and a soft single.

The Bat

Barreling at 10.3% — comfortably above the league norm, with pop to all fields.

He averages 93.1 mph off the bat (elite) — consistent hard contact, not loud outliers.

He's at 53.8% hard-hit — quality of contact is a feature, not a fluke.

The Matchup

Demolishing four-seams — 0.554 xwOBA on 58 batted balls, and Cristian Javier throws them 42% of the time. This is the pitch he's been waiting for.

The Spot

Hitting third — the marquee lineup slot, runs and RBIs both on the menu.

HRRKyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
HOU @ PHI
1:05 pm ET
H+R+RBI · Over 2.5+120FDKalshi 41¢ → +144
The edge
-3.3pp
Confidence
B-57
Barrel%19.2Avg EV89.4Max EV111
Opp SP Cristian JavierB · 100 · Pit+ 100

Weather's pushing balls out at Citizens Bank Park tonight — wind contribution is +13% on HRs.

The read

Weather's pushing balls out at Citizens Bank Park tonight — wind contribution is +13% on HRs.

The park plays a touch HR-friendly tonight.

Top of the order — he's locked into 5 trips.

He gets enough swings tonight; the over cashes.

The Bat

Elite 19.2% barrel rate — plus-plus raw pop, the kind that clears any fence.

Average exit velo of 89.4 mph is strong — the bat speed plays.

He's topped out at 110.7 mph — the ceiling on contact quality is legitimately big.

The Spot

Hitting first means the most cuts of anyone in the lineup, with run-scoring leverage on top.

HRRJunior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TB @ ATL
12:15 pm ET
H+R+RBI · Over 3.5+240FDKalshi 24¢ → +308
The edge
+14.2pp
Confidence
B+69
Barrel%11.1Avg EV91.9Max EV116
Opp SP Martin PerezC− · 86 · Pit+ 91

Caminero sits on sinkers — .484 xwOBA — and Martín Pérez throws them 40% of the time.

The read

Caminero sits on sinkers — .484 xwOBA — and Martín Pérez throws them 40% of the time.

In the three spot, where the volume meets the power.

Take it — this is the high-floor hitter pick of the slate.

The Bat

Barreling at 11.1% — comfortably above the league norm, with pop to all fields.

Average exit velo of 91.9 mph is strong — the bat speed plays.

A 115.5 mph max EV says the thunder is there on his best swings.

The Matchup

Crushes sinkers (0.484 xwOBA) — and Martín Pérez is heavy on them at 40% usage.

The Spot

The 3-hole is prime real estate: volume plus the meat of the order around him.

Total bases reward the hard contact even when the ball stays in the yard. Doubles and triples cash these, so the hard-hit bats in good spots carry real value at plus money.

TBYandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
TB @ ATL
12:15 pm ET
Total Bases · Over 1.5-106DKKalshi 48¢ → +111
The edge
-5.3pp
Confidence
A-75
Barrel%11.5Avg EV93.5Max EV108
Opp SP Martin PerezC− · 86 · Pit+ 91

Diaz's 12-for-32, 2 HR in his career against this guy.

The read

Diaz's 12-for-32, 2 HR in his career against this guy.

Leading off — five PAs is the floor.

Total bases is the cleanest hitter prop on the slate.

The Bat

Barreling at 11.5% — comfortably above the league norm, with pop to all fields.

He averages 93.5 mph off the bat (elite) — consistent hard contact, not loud outliers.

A 61.5% hard-hit rate points to repeatable thump — the loud contact is the norm.

The Spot

Leadoff spot — max plate appearances on the slate, plus a leverage spot for runs scored.

TBBen Rice
Ben Rice
COL @ NYY
7:05 pm ET
Total Bases · Over 1.5-102DKKalshi 48¢ → +108
The edge
-6.0pp
Confidence
B-57
Barrel%10.0Avg EV91.6Max EV110
Opp SP Ryan FeltnerC · 92 · Pit+ 92

Rice doesn't miss four-seams (.479), and that's 22% of Ryan Feltner's mix.

The read

Rice doesn't miss four-seams (.479), and that's 22% of Ryan Feltner's mix.

Weather's pushing balls out at Yankee Stadium tonight — wind contribution is +16% on HRs.

Top of the order — he's locked into 5 trips.

TB Over is where the value sits on this card.

The Bat

Barreling at 10.0% — comfortably above the league norm, with pop to all fields.

91.6 mph average EV is strong; the barrel control shows up swing to swing.

He's topped out at 110.2 mph — the ceiling on contact quality is legitimately big.

A 48.0% hard-hit rate points to repeatable thump — the loud contact is the norm.

The Matchup

Crushes four-seams (0.479 xwOBA) — and Ryan Feltner is heavy on them at 22% usage.

The Spot

Hitting first means the most cuts of anyone in the lineup, with run-scoring leverage on top.

The Arms

Strikeout ladders and the pitcher prop board. Each play carries the edge, the price and the read. The ladder shows all three rungs with the official pick flagged.

Arms on the board3
Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez
TB @ ATL · 12:15 pm ET
Top5.5+ Kthe swing+560STAKED · 1U
Mid4.5+ Kthe play+235STAKED · 1U
Base3.5+ Ksafe anchor+102anchor · no stake
Proj K4.4
CSW26%
Opp K%21.8
Est IP5.5

League-avg whiff · disciplined ATL lineup (risk watch) · pick line Over 4.5

How he climbs the ladder

This is a grind-out start (18% whiff vs 22% lineup K rate) — the Ks come slow and you need depth to clear the ladder. Standard start length (5.5 IP) — middle rung is reachable if the count discipline holds.

Why this rung is the pick

Projection (4.4) is right at the middle line (4.5) — bottom rung is the anchor; middle rides variance more than edge.

Read

pitch-to-contact, disciplined lineup (risk watch) — low-K setup; this one rides workload and variance, not a stuff mismatch — size it down.

Max Fried
Max Fried
NYY vs COL · 7:05 pm ET
Top7.5+ Kthe swing+426STAKED · 1U
Mid6.5+ Kthe play+204STAKED · 1U
Base5.5+ Ksafe anchor+110anchor · no stake
Proj K5.3
CSW29%
Opp K%23.0
Est IP5.1

League-avg whiff · pick line Over 6.5

How he climbs the ladder

This is a grind-out start (25% whiff vs 23% lineup K rate) — the Ks come slow and you need depth to clear the ladder. Standard start length (5.1 IP) — middle rung is reachable if the count discipline holds.

Why this rung is the pick

Projection sits 1.2 below the middle rung — this ladder is more about the bottom rung clearing than top-rung swing potential.

Read

league-avg whiff, normal K-vulnerability lineup — low-K setup; this one rides workload and variance, not a stuff mismatch — size it down.

No swing-and-miss arms cleared today.
No hits-allowed edges cleared today.
ERRyan Feltner
Ryan Feltner
COL @ NYY
7:05 pm ET
Earned Runs · Under 3.5-150MGM
The edge
-13.4pp
Confidence
B48
Stuff+C · 92Pit+92Whiff%23.8

Model has ER at 2.8 — half a run under the 3.5 line.

The read

Model has ER at 2.8 — half a run under the 3.5 line.

HR/9 of 0.00 — he keeps the ball in the park.

The catch is he's been getting tagged — 16 earned over his last 3 starts.

Bet the Under; this is his matchup to win.

The Arm

His 23.8% whiff rate is league-average — he gets some but isn't a strikeout monster.

A 4.8-inning projection caps the ceiling; not much runway for counting stats.

The Matchup

Opposing K rate of 24.7% is league-average.

The Edge

Model's composite Pitcher Score: 31/100 (stuff + command + matchup + park).

No pitcher-outs edges cleared today.

The Board

Team markets only. Moneyline, run line, totals, and the road-fade lane that fades overconfident home favorites. Each card has the edge, the price, and the book to beat.

Game plays4
Kalshi ⇄ American · odds converter

Kalshi quotes the YES contract in cents = implied probability. Converts both ways and matches the model’s own Kalshi devig (kalshi_price_to_american). Calculator only — no live prices.

No Road Dog Fades plays cleared the gate tonight.
RL
COL @ NYY
COL @ NYY
7:05 pm ET
RL · COL · +1.5+110FD
The edge
+0.3pp
Confidence
D41
Implied48%Edge+0.3pp

Model has the edge here — the price doesn't reflect it.

The read

Model has the edge here — the price doesn't reflect it.

Take the +1.5 — the dog's not getting swept.

The Conditions

Conditions favor runs (1.15) — wind, heat, and the ballpark all push the same way.

The Number

Model run-total projection: 1.59.

RL
HOU @ PHI
HOU @ PHI
1:05 pm ET
RL · HOU · +1.5-134FD
The edge
-0.7pp
Confidence
B48
Implied57%Edge-0.7pp

Model has the edge here — the price doesn't reflect it.

The read

Model has the edge here — the price doesn't reflect it.

Lock it — this fav covers by two.

The Conditions

Conditions favor runs (1.22) — wind, heat, and the ballpark all push the same way.

The Number

Model run-total projection: 0.36.

TOTAL
HOU @ PHI
HOU @ PHI
1:05 pm ET
Total · Over 8.5-110FD
F5F5 Total · Over 4.5-110
The edge
+9.8pp
Confidence
B53
Proj runs11.8Implied52%Edge+9.8pp

Park and weather are pushing this total — Citizens Bank Park plays +12% on runs tonight.

The read

Park and weather are pushing this total — Citizens Bank Park plays +12% on runs tonight.

One side's pen has been getting lit lately — late-inning runs are in play.

Bet the Over, the model has it a run+ over the line.

The Conditions

A 1.22 run environment is a hitter's backdrop: warm air, helpful wind, friendly park.

Bullpen edge here: a shaky relief corps nudges the run total up.

The Number

Model projects 11.78 runs vs the 8.5 line — Over-side edge.

The Tickets

Parlays built off today's board. The anchor stacks steadier legs for a clean cash; the rocket swings at the longshot lane.

Tickets up4
ROCKET
Combined
+11367
4-leg swing

Twin Engine

Shots in the longshot lane. One hot night and it pays big.

1
HOU @ PHI
F5 Total Over 4.51:05 pm ET
−110
Leg conf0.71
2
Junior Caminero (TB)
H+R+RBI Over 3.512:15 pm ET
+240
Leg conf0.52
3
Bryce Harper (PHI)
H+R+RBI Over 2.51:05 pm ET
+142
Leg conf0.61
4
Lazaro Montes (SEA)
HR Over 0.54:10 pm ET
+630
Leg conf0.20
Stake
$10
Combined
+11367
Returns
$1136.70
ROCKET
Combined
+600
3-leg swing

Take Me Out to the Ball Game

Shots in the longshot lane. One hot night and it pays big.

1
HOU @ PHI
Total Over 8.51:05 pm ET
−110
Leg conf0.74
2
COL @ NYY
Run Line +1.57:05 pm ET
+110
Leg conf0.49
3
HOU @ PHI
Run Line +1.51:05 pm ET
−134
Leg conf0.60
Stake
$10
Combined
+600
Returns
$60.00
ROCKET
Combined
+30647
5-leg swing

The Rocket

Shots in the longshot lane. One hot night and it pays big.

1
Jeremy Pena (HOU)
H+R+RBI Over 2.51:05 pm ET
+209
Leg conf0.43
2
HOU @ PHI
Total Over 8.51:05 pm ET
−110
Leg conf0.74
3
Junior Caminero (TB)
H+R+RBI Over 3.512:15 pm ET
+240
Leg conf0.52
4
COL @ NYY
Run Line +1.57:05 pm ET
+110
Leg conf0.49
5
Lazaro Montes (SEA)
HR Over 0.54:10 pm ET
+630
Leg conf0.20
Stake
$10
Combined
+30647
Returns
$3064.70
ROCKET
Combined
+38876
5-leg swing

Diamond Mine

Shots in the longshot lane. One hot night and it pays big.

1
Junior Caminero (TB)
H+R+RBI Over 3.512:15 pm ET
+240
Leg conf0.52
2
Bryce Harper (PHI)
H+R+RBI Over 2.51:05 pm ET
+142
Leg conf0.61
3
Jeremy Pena (HOU)
H+R+RBI Over 2.51:05 pm ET
+209
Leg conf0.43
4
COL @ NYY
Run Line +1.57:05 pm ET
+110
Leg conf0.49
5
Lazaro Montes (SEA)
HR Over 0.54:10 pm ET
+630
Leg conf0.20
Stake
$10
Combined
+38876
Returns
$3887.60

CTBetz Fantasy Cards

Tonight's eligible board. Stack the Lab's picks into one ticket, set the stake, lock the multiplier.

Fantasy Cards · PrizePicks

CTBetz Fantasy Cards

Lab picks · bold single-side · add to slip
PFS/HFS lines are real PP lines. Sportsbook market lines & 😈 demon tags are estimated — confirm in the app.
⚙ HFS is calibrating — shown for transparency, not yet a trusted lane.
Slip sent to PrizePicks · copied to clipboard

The Track Record

Units over time, every pick graded. Official board only — parlays and ladders are tracked in their own vacuum. The all-time line is the real number, win or lose. 18041 picks logged.

Record
124–142
46.6% win rate
Units
+34.5u
net, flat 1u stakes
ROI
+13.0%
return on risk
Best market
+20.2u
HR
Active filter
Last 7 days, all markets
278

Equity curve

+34.5u
Net units across 7 graded slates (2026-09-03 → 2026-09-09) · flat 1u stakes
-3u5u13u21u29u37u

Daily P&L

Net units by day — tap a date for the slate.
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Wednesday, Sep 9
22–28+7.7u+15.3% ROI
LOSSTomoyuki SuganoER Under 3.5−1.0u
LOSSJanson JunkER Under 2.5−1.0u
LOSSJake BennettER Under 2.5−1.0u
LOSSBlade TidwellER Under 2.5−1.0u
LOSSRhett LowderER Under 3.5−1.0u
WINLogan HendersonER Under 2.5+0.6u
WINARI @ KCF5_Totals Over 5+1.0u
WINLAA @ BOSF5_Totals Over 5+0.8u
LOSSTOR @ ATHF5_Totals Over 5.5−1.0u
WINKevin GausmanHA Over 4.5+0.6u
LOSSDavis MartinHA Over 4.5−1.0u
WINAndre PallanteHA Over 4.5+0.7u
LOSSWill WarrenHA Over 4.5−1.0u
LOSSMike TroutHR Over 0.5−1.0u
WINWilliam ContrerasHR Over 0.5+6.4u
LOSSBryan ReynoldsHR Over 0.5−1.0u
WINElly De La CruzHR Over 0.5+5.4u
LOSSKyle TeelHR Over 0.5−1.0u
WINCarter JensenHR Over 0.5+5.2u
WINAaron JudgeHRR Over 2.5+1.1u
VOIDShohei OhtaniHRR Over 3.50.0u
WINKody ClemensHRR Over 1.5+0.8u
WINFernando Tatis Jr.HRR Over 3.5+2.5u
VOIDAdley RutschmanHRR Over 2.50.0u
WINCoby MayoHRR Over 1.5+0.9u
WINDillon DinglerHRR Over 1.5+0.8u
WINRoman AnthonyHRR Over 2.5+1.1u
LOSSJake BennettK Over 5.5−1.0u
LOSSCristopher SanchezK_ladder Over 7.5−1.0u
LOSSCristopher SanchezK_ladder Over 8.5−1.0u
LOSSLogan HendersonK_ladder Over 7.5−1.0u
LOSSLogan HendersonK_ladder Over 8.5−1.0u
LOSSTEX @ SEAML TEX 0−1.0u
LOSSHOU @ PHIML HOU 0−1.0u
LOSSCHC @ MILML CHC 0−1.0u
LOSSARI @ KCML ARI 0−1.0u
WINRobert StockOuts Under 13.5+1.0u
LOSSDaniel LynchOuts Under 14.5−1.0u
LOSSRyan JohnsonOuts Under 14.5−1.0u
WINJackson KentOuts Under 14.5+1.1u
LOSSWAS @ SDRL WAS 1.5−1.0u
LOSSCOL @ NYYRL COL 1.5−1.0u
LOSSCIN @ LADRL CIN 1.5−1.0u
WINLAA @ BOSRL LAA 1.5+0.9u
WINTOR @ ATHRL ATH 1.5+0.9u
WINFrancisco LindorTB Over 1.5+1.1u
VOIDShohei OhtaniTB Over 1.50.0u
LOSSBen RiceTB Over 1.5−1.0u
WINHOU @ PHITotals Over 8+0.9u
LOSSARI @ KCTotals Over 8.5−1.0u
WINMIN @ DETTotals Over 8.5+0.9u
WINCLE @ BALTotals Over 8.5+0.8u
LOSSTOR @ ATHTotals Over 9.5−1.0u

By market

Net units by market, graded in range. Where the Lab makes its money.

HR
W-L 7–17
+20.2u
K_ladder
W-L 10–22
+10.8u
HRR
W-L 17–20
+5.1u
RL
W-L 18–11
+4.3u
K
W-L 4–3
+3.5u
Totals
W-L 10–7
+2.1u
HA
W-L 12–6
+1.9u
TB
W-L 12–11
+1.3u
ER
W-L 16–12
−1.1u
F5_Totals
W-L 5–6
−1.4u
Outs
W-L 7–13
−5.2u
ML
W-L 6–14
−7.2u

K ladders

each bubble is a rung (the K line); ringed = staked 1u (middle + top), plain = the anchor rung we show but never bet.
Official lane · 10-22 staked rungs · +10.83u · 32 of 66 rungs staked — stakes are budgeted per slate by RUNG, not by ladder (6/slate since 2026-07-24); dimmed rows took no stake
Cristopher Sanchez2026-09-09
LADDER6.57.51U8.51U-2.0u
-2.00u
Logan Henderson2026-09-09
LADDER6.57.51U8.51U-2.0u
-2.00u
Michael Wacha2026-09-08
LADDER4.55.51U6.51U-2.0u
-2.00u
Sean Burke2026-09-08
LADDER6.57.51U8.51U-2.0u
-2.00u
Jacob Misiorowski2026-09-08
LADDER8.59.51U10.51U-2.0u
-2.00u
Nick Pivetta2026-09-07
LADDER4.55.51U6.51U-2.0u
-2.00u
Dylan Cease2026-09-07
LADDER7.58.51U9.51U-2.0u
-2.00u
Emmet Sheehan2026-09-07
LADDER6.57.51U8.51U+6.3u
+6.26u
Gerrit Cole2026-09-06
LADDER5.56.57.5
no stake
Tyler Mahle2026-09-06
LADDER4.55.51U6.51U-2.0u
-2.00u
Randy Dobnak2026-09-06
LADDER2.53.51U4.51U-2.0u
-2.00u
Justin Wrobleski2026-09-06
LADDER4.55.56.5
no stake
Bryan Woo2026-09-06
LADDER6.57.51U8.51U+6.3u
+6.35u
Paul Skenes2026-09-06
LADDER6.57.58.5
no stake
Jacob deGrom2026-09-05
LADDER5.56.57.5
no stake
Tyler Glasnow2026-09-05
LADDER7.58.51U9.51U-2.0u
-2.00u
Matthew Liberatore2026-09-05
LADDER5.56.57.5
no stake
Taj Bradley2026-09-05
LADDER6.57.51U8.51U-2.0u
-2.00u
Cade Cavalli2026-09-05
LADDER5.56.51U7.51U+6.0u
+6.00u
Parker Messick2026-09-05
LADDER6.57.58.5
no stake
Jared Jones2026-09-04
LADDER6.57.51U8.51U+7.9u
+7.89u
Kevin Gausman2026-09-03
LADDER5.56.51U7.51U+6.3u
+6.33u

PrizePicks — Fantasy & PP Markets

vacuum-tracked · NOT staked as singles · graded on the posted board (per-market caps: top-N by conf, ≤3/game)
Most recent slate · 2026-09-0945–18–2P+23.0u
MARKETLAST SLATE7D30DSEASON
PFS10–7+3.0u+18%60–38+22.0u+22%204–156+48.0u+13%516–410+106.0u+11%
HFS11–4+7.0u+47%69–36–1P+33.0u+31%268–181–4P+87.0u+19%710–490–14P+220.0u+18%
K4–3–2P+0.3u+5%27–28–5P-5.5u-10%113–106–20P-11.3u-5%240–258–57P-57.5u-12%
Outs1–2-1.2u-39%5–9-4.8u-35%23–25–2P-5.5u-11%51–56–3P-13.2u-12%
HRR12–0+10.0u+83%46–36+2.3u+3%179–166-15.7u-5%381–404-85.3u-11%
TB7–2+3.8u+43%41–33+1.2u+2%153–151-22.7u-7%365–353-48.0u-7%
TOTAL45–18–2P+23.0u+37%248–180–6P+48.2u+11%940–785–26P+79.8u+5%2263–1971–74P+122.0u+3%
Each cell = record · net units · ROI. Flat 1u per posted pick. Every market reflects its capped posted board (HFS top-18, PFS top-18, K/Outs/HRR/TB top-12 by conf, ≤3 per game) so it matches what actually shipped — not the full shadow pool.
Lab Play of the Dayvacuum — tracked separately from the main record
3–3+0.07u

Graded picks

Every graded play across all lanes — official, parlays, ladders, longshots — win or lose. Filter by Type / Market / Lab / Result; click any column to re-sort. The equity curve & record above are official-only.
Showing most recent 250 of 841 graded picks
DateResultTypeLabMarketPlayer / MatchLinePriceBookConfEVUnits
Sep 9WINParlayParlay OverBob's Bangers: 3 legs3+28984+0.0+289.8u
Sep 9WINParlay (forced)Parlay OverThe Heater: 3 legs3+681+0.0+6.8u
Sep 9WINParlay (forced)Parlay OverHit Parade: 4 legs4+1622+0.0+6.5u
Sep 9WINOfficialHittersHR OverWilliam Contreras0.5+640DK21%+1.1+6.4u
Sep 9WINHR (legacy)HittersHR OverWilliam Contreras0.5+640DK21%+1.1+6.4u
Sep 9WINHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverWilliam Contreras0.5+640DK21%+1.1+6.4u
Sep 9WINStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverWilliam Contreras0.5+640DK21%+1.1+6.4u
Sep 9WINParlay (forced)Parlay OverTwin Engine: 4 legs4+4306+0.0+5.7u
Sep 8WINHR (legacy)HittersHR OverTim Tawa0.5+555DK19%-2.3+5.5u
Sep 8WINStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverTim Tawa0.5+555DK19%-2.3+5.5u
Sep 9WINOfficialHittersHR OverElly De La Cruz0.5+537DK24%+1.5+5.4u
Sep 9WINHR (legacy)HittersHR OverElly De La Cruz0.5+537DK24%+1.5+5.4u
Sep 9WINHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverElly De La Cruz0.5+537DK24%+1.5+5.4u
Sep 9WINStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverElly De La Cruz0.5+537DK24%+1.5+5.4u
Sep 9WINOfficialHittersHR OverCarter Jensen0.5+517DK25%+2.5+5.2u
Sep 9WINHR (legacy)HittersHR OverCarter Jensen0.5+517DK25%+2.5+5.2u
Sep 9WINHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverCarter Jensen0.5+517DK25%+2.5+5.2u
Sep 9WINStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverCarter Jensen0.5+517DK25%+2.5+5.2u
Sep 8WINHR (legacy)HittersHR OverKody Clemens0.5+479DK17%-5.4+4.8u
Sep 8WINStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverKody Clemens0.5+479DK17%-5.4+4.8u
Sep 8WINHR (legacy)HittersHR OverElly De La Cruz0.5+475MGM22%-1.8+4.8u
Sep 8WINStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverElly De La Cruz0.5+475MGM20%-1.8+4.8u
Sep 8WINOfficialHittersHRR OverYandy Diaz3.5+254DK38%+8.8+2.5u
Sep 9WINOfficialHittersHRR OverFernando Tatis Jr.3.5+253DK45%+11.9+2.5u
Sep 8WINOfficialPitchersK OverAndrew Painter5.5+172FD45%+1.6+1.7u
Sep 9WINRl_Fav_ShadowGamesRL SDWAS @ SD-1.5+135DK49%+2.0+1.4u
Sep 8WINOfficialHittersHRR OverKyle Schwarber2.5+126DK61%+3.4+1.3u
Sep 8WINOfficialPitchersOuts UnderAJ Smith-Shawver14.5+126DK81%+10.4+1.3u
Sep 8WINOfficialGamesRL CINCIN @ LAD1.5+125FD50%+3.0+1.2u
Sep 8WINOfficialGamesML PITPIT @ CWS0+124FD44%+0.8+1.2u
Sep 8WINOfficialGamesML HOUHOU @ PHI0+120FD39%-4.3+1.2u
Sep 9WINOfficialHittersHRR OverAaron Judge2.5+115DK77%+8.6+1.1u
Sep 9WINOfficialPitchersOuts UnderJackson Kent14.5+115MGM74%+3.2+1.1u
Sep 8WINLadderK_ladder OverJacob Misiorowski8.5+114FD24%-18.7+1.1u
Sep 9WINOfficialHittersTB OverFrancisco Lindor1.5+110MGM47%-11.5+1.1u
Sep 8WINOfficialHittersTB OverJackson Chourio1.5+109DK53%-10.8+1.1u
Sep 8WINOfficialGamesML NYMNYM @ MIA0+108FD45%-1.7+1.1u
Sep 9WINOfficialHittersHRR OverRoman Anthony2.5+105MGM69%+2.4+1.1u
Sep 9WINOfficialGamesF5_Totals OverARI @ KC5-102MGM68%+8.9+1.0u
Sep 8WINOfficialGamesTotals OverCLE @ BAL8.5-102MGM69%+7.6+1.0u
Sep 8WINOfficialHittersTB OverYandy Diaz1.5-103DK65%-2.2+1.0u
Sep 9WINOfficialPitchersOuts UnderRobert Stock13.5-104DK79%+2.9+1.0u
Sep 9WINOfficialGamesTotals OverHOU @ PHI8-110MGM68%+3.3+0.9u
Sep 9WINOfficialGamesTotals OverMIN @ DET8.5-110FD72%+7.5+0.9u
Sep 9WINOfficialGamesRL LAALAA @ BOS1.5-110MGM44%-9.5+0.9u
Sep 9WINOfficialGamesRL ATHTOR @ ATH1.5-110FD60%+5.1+0.9u
Sep 9WINOfficialHittersHRR OverCoby Mayo1.5-111DK80%+6.4+0.9u
Sep 8WINRl_Fav_ShadowGamesRL TORTOR @ ATH-1.5-114DK45%-8.5+0.9u
Sep 9WINOfficialHittersHRR OverKody Clemens1.5-118DK79%+5.9+0.8u
Sep 9WINOfficialHittersHRR OverDillon Dingler1.5-118DK78%+5.1+0.8u
Sep 9WINRl_Fav_ShadowGamesRL NYYCOL @ NYY-1.5-118FD46%-8.0+0.8u
Sep 9WINOfficialGamesF5_Totals OverLAA @ BOS5-118MGM67%+4.3+0.8u
Sep 8WINOfficialGamesF5_Totals OverHOU @ PHI4.5-118MGM65%+3.4+0.8u
Sep 9WINOfficialGamesTotals OverCLE @ BAL8.5-120DK73%+7.1+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickPitchersOuts UnderRobert Stock14.5-120PP74%+23.5+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickPitchersK UnderGriffin Jax4.5-120PP64%+14.3+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickPitchersK UnderFoster Griffin5.5-120PP69%+18.7+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickPitchersK UnderCody Bradford4-120PP77%+27.3+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickPitchersK UnderBlade Tidwell4.5-120PP66%+16.2+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverBryce Harper1.5-120PP75%+24.9+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverMax Muncy1.5-120PP74%+24.2+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersTB OverAaron Judge1.5-120PP81%+30.5+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverJosh Bell1.5-120PP75%+25.1+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersTB OverCarson Kelly0.5-120PP72%+21.9+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverMichael Conforto0.5-120PP78%+28.5+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersTB OverCedric Mullins0.5-120PP75%+24.5+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverKyle Schwarber1.5-120PP75%+24.7+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverKody Clemens1.5-120PP79%+28.5+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersTB OverCarlos Narvaez0.5-120PP72%+22.3+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverWill Smith1.5-120PP73%+23.4+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverYordan Alvarez1.5-120PP74%+24.4+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersTB OverLuis Garcia1.5-120PP74%+24.1+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersTB OverWilyer Abreu1.5-120PP78%+27.7+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersTB OverRichie Palacios0.5-120PP72%+22.1+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverJarren Duran1.5-120PP75%+25.1+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverZach Neto1.5-120PP73%+23.3+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverCoby Mayo1.5-120PP80%+29.6+0.8u
Sep 9WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverDillon Dingler1.5-120PP77%+27.1+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickPitchersK UnderDrew Anderson4.5-120PP62%+12.0+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickPitchersK UnderSean Manaea5-120PP62%+11.5+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickPitchersK UnderSandy Alcantara4.5-120PP79%+29.4+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickPitchersK UnderJose Soriano5-120PP58%+7.8+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickPitchersOuts UnderTanner Bibee17.5-120PP67%+16.9+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickPitchersK UnderSean Burke6.5-120PP59%+8.7+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickPitchersK UnderLanden Roupp5-120PP58%+7.6+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickPitchersOuts OverLanden Roupp15.5-120PP67%+17.0+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickPitchersK UnderAJ Smith-Shawver4-120PP70%+19.9+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverMatt McLain0.5-120PP83%+32.8+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickHittersTB OverMatt McLain0.5-120PP79%+29.0+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickHittersTB OverRichie Palacios0.5-120PP72%+21.6+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverSteven Kwan1.5-120PP72%+22.2+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickHittersTB OverFrancisco Alvarez0.5-120PP72%+21.9+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickHittersHRR OverZach Neto1.5-120PP73%+23.3+0.8u
Sep 8WINPp_PickHittersTB OverHunter Goodman0.5-120PP78%+28.0+0.8u
Sep 9WINRl_Fav_ShadowGamesRL LADCIN @ LAD-1.5-126FD56%-1.7+0.8u
Sep 8WINOfficialGamesRL COLCOL @ NYY2.5-130MGM61%+2.6+0.8u
Sep 8WINOfficialGamesRL WASWAS @ SD1.5-140MGM60%-0.1+0.7u
Sep 9WINOfficialPitchersHA OverAndre Pallante4.5-150DK62%-11.3+0.7u
Sep 8WINOfficialPitchersHA OverHayden Wesneski4.5-150MGM61%-16.7+0.7u
Sep 9WINOfficialPitchersHA OverKevin Gausman4.5-154DK62%-15.1+0.6u
Sep 8WINRl_Fav_ShadowGamesRL NYYCOL @ NYY-1.5-154FD48%-12.6+0.6u
Sep 8WINOfficialPitchersER UnderFreddy Peralta2.5-157DK55%-14.5+0.6u
Sep 8WINOfficialPitchersHA OverBrandon Young4.5-165DK69%-10.5+0.6u
Sep 8WINOfficialPitchersER UnderQuinn Mathews2.5-169DK56%-15.9+0.6u
Sep 8WINOfficialPitchersER UnderReid Detmers2.5-172DK65%-13.3+0.6u
Sep 9WINOfficialPitchersER UnderLogan Henderson2.5-175DK58%-16.2+0.6u
Sep 8WINOfficialPitchersHA OverSean Manaea4.5-210MGM63%-21.1+0.5u
Sep 9VOIDOfficialHittersHRR OverShohei Ohtani3.5+188DK53%+9.00.0u
Sep 9VOIDOfficialHittersTB OverShohei Ohtani1.5-120DK80%+4.70.0u
Sep 9VOIDOfficialHittersHRR OverAdley Rutschman2.5+128DK69%+7.60.0u
Sep 9PUSHPp_PickPitchersK UnderRobert Stock4-120PP61%+10.70.0u
Sep 9PUSHPp_PickPitchersK UnderKade Anderson5-120PP59%+9.50.0u
Sep 9VOIDPp_PickHittersTB OverShohei Ohtani1.5-120PP80%+30.10.0u
Sep 9VOIDPp_PickHittersTB OverNelson Velazquez0.5-120PP83%+33.10.0u
Sep 9VOIDPp_PickHittersTB OverFrancisco Alvarez0.5-120PP73%+22.70.0u
Sep 8VOIDOfficialHittersHR OverShohei Ohtani0.5+265FD21%-13.00.0u
Sep 8VOIDOfficialHittersTB OverShohei Ohtani1.5-104DK71%+0.80.0u
Sep 8VOIDHR (legacy)HittersHR OverShohei Ohtani0.5+265FD21%-13.00.0u
Sep 8VOIDHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverShohei Ohtani0.5+265FD21%-13.00.0u
Sep 8VOIDHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverJohn Peck0.5+880FD14%-0.60.0u
Sep 8VOIDStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverShohei Ohtani0.5+265FD21%-13.00.0u
Sep 8PUSHPp_PickPitchersK OverMichael Wacha4-120PP75%+25.40.0u
Sep 8VOIDPp_PickHittersTB OverElias Diaz0.5-120PP72%+22.30.0u
Sep 8VOIDPp_PickHittersHRR OverDillon Dingler1.5-120PP75%+24.80.0u
Sep 8VOIDPp_PickHittersTB OverJacob Young0.5-120PP71%+21.20.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialHittersHR OverMike Trout0.5+475MGM22%-1.9−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialHittersHR OverBryan Reynolds0.5+550MGM22%+0.2−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialHittersHR OverKyle Teel0.5+525DK21%-0.8−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialHittersTB OverBen Rice1.5-120DK73%-0.3−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverJames Wood0.5+382DK23%-4.1−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverBryan Reynolds0.5+550MGM22%+0.2−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverDaylen Lile0.5+630FD21%+1.4−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverMike Trout0.5+475MGM22%-1.9−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverKyle Teel0.5+525DK21%-0.8−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverRece Hinds0.5+690DK21%+2.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverRafael Flores0.5+650DK20%+0.7−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverSal Frelick0.5+1120DK19%+5.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverPete Crow-Armstrong0.5+319DK22%-8.4−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverMike Trout0.5+475MGM22%-1.9−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverRiley Greene0.5+360FD20%-7.5−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverBryan Reynolds0.5+550MGM22%+0.2−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverKyle Teel0.5+525DK21%-0.8−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverRandy Arozarena0.5+421DK19%-6.2−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverAaron Judge0.5+212DK19%-18.6−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverNolan Gorman0.5+597DK19%-1.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverJohn Peck0.5+910DK19%+3.3−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverSal Frelick0.5+1120DK19%+5.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverJames Wood0.5+382DK23%-4.1−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverBryan Reynolds0.5+550MGM22%+0.2−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverMike Trout0.5+475MGM22%-1.9−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverDaylen Lile0.5+630FD21%+1.4−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverKyle Teel0.5+525DK22%-0.8−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverRece Hinds0.5+690DK21%+2.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverRafael Flores0.5+650DK21%+0.7−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverSal Frelick0.5+1120DK19%+5.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverJohn Peck0.5+910DK19%+3.3−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialPitchersER UnderTomoyuki Sugano3.5-130MGM61%-12.9−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialPitchersHA OverDavis Martin4.5-125MGM60%-12.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialPitchersOuts UnderDaniel Lynch14.5-105MGM92%+3.9−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialPitchersER UnderJanson Junk2.5-155MGM58%-14.1−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialPitchersK OverJake Bennett5.5+119DK56%+0.8−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialPitchersER UnderJake Bennett2.5-155MGM56%-14.6−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialPitchersER UnderBlade Tidwell2.5-155MGM64%-10.2−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialPitchersER UnderRhett Lowder3.5-150MGM60%-10.6−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialPitchersOuts UnderRyan Johnson14.5+105MGM61%+1.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialPitchersHA OverWill Warren4.5-158DK62%-15.4−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialGamesML TEXTEX @ SEA0+132FD43%+0.2−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialGamesRL WASWAS @ SD1.5-145MGM51%-8.8−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialGamesML HOUHOU @ PHI0+130FD43%+2.1−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialGamesRL COLCOL @ NYY1.5-102FD54%+1.2−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialGamesML CHCCHC @ MIL0+116FD42%-3.4−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialGamesRL CINCIN @ LAD1.5+105FD44%-5.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialGamesML ARIARI @ KC0-120MGM43%-9.9−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialGamesTotals OverARI @ KC8.5-120MGM70%+5.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSRl_Fav_ShadowGamesRL BOSLAA @ BOS-1.5-106FD56%+2.8−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialGamesTotals OverTOR @ ATH9.5+100DK68%+8.8−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSOfficialGamesF5_Totals OverTOR @ ATH5.5+100FD63%+6.2−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSLadderK_ladder OverCristopher Sanchez6.5+108DK30%-13.4−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSLadder (official)K_ladder OverCristopher Sanchez7.5+203DK24%-8.5−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSLadder (official)K_ladder OverCristopher Sanchez8.5+400FD20%-0.1−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSLadderK_ladder OverLogan Henderson6.5+134DK35%-5.8−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSLadder (official)K_ladder OverLogan Henderson7.5+270DK27%+0.3−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSLadder (official)K_ladder OverLogan Henderson8.5+547DK22%+7.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSPp_PickPitchersK UnderReynaldo Lopez4-120PP66%+15.9−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSPp_PickPitchersOuts UnderGriffin Jax14.5-120PP87%+37.2−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSPp_PickPitchersOuts UnderDaniel Lynch14.5-120PP82%+31.9−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSPp_PickPitchersK OverKeider Montero3-120PP69%+19.4−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSPp_PickPitchersK OverJake Bennett5-120PP72%+22.4−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSPp_PickHittersTB OverJJ Bleday0.5-120PP78%+27.8−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSPp_PickHittersTB OverAustin Wells0.5-120PP76%+25.5−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSParlayParlay OverTake Me Out to the Ball Game: 4 legs4+1344+0.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSParlay (forced)Parlay OverThe Rocket: 5 legs5+2194+0.0−1.0u
Sep 9LOSSParlay (forced)Parlay OverDiamond Mine: 5 legs5+4721+0.0−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialHittersHRR OverBryce Harper2.5+160DK62%+9.9−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialHittersHR OverTeoscar Hernandez0.5+333MGM24%-5.5−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialHittersTB OverFernando Tatis Jr.1.5-104DK63%-2.8−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialHittersHRR OverYordan Alvarez2.5+120MGM60%+1.5−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialHittersHR OverJames Wood0.5+306DK22%-9.2−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialHittersHR OverDaylen Lile0.5+484DK21%-2.0−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialHittersTB OverBen Rice1.5-102DK62%-4.7−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverTeoscar Hernandez0.5+333MGM24%-5.5−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverDaylen Lile0.5+484DK21%-2.0−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverCarter Jensen0.5+490FD21%-2.4−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverJames Wood0.5+306DK22%-9.2−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverGabriel Moreno0.5+630DK19%-0.8−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverTyler Stephenson0.5+640DK18%-1.0−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverPete Crow-Armstrong0.5+420FD19%-6.4−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (legacy)HittersHR OverJonah Cox0.5+1150MGM16%+2.7−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverJames Wood0.5+306DK22%-9.2−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverTeoscar Hernandez0.5+333MGM24%-5.5−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverRiley Greene0.5+425MGM15%-8.8−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSHR (kitchen)HittersHR OverDaylen Lile0.5+484DK21%-2.0−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverTeoscar Hernandez0.5+333MGM24%-5.5−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverDaylen Lile0.5+484DK21%-2.0−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverCarter Jensen0.5+490FD21%-2.4−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverJames Wood0.5+306DK22%-9.2−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverGabriel Moreno0.5+630DK19%-0.8−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverTyler Stephenson0.5+640DK17%-1.0−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverKyle Schwarber0.5+235FD20%-16.2−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSStuff_ShadowHittersHR OverJonah Cox0.5+1150MGM16%+2.7−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialPitchersER UnderBryce Miller2.5-165MGM63%-12.9−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialPitchersOuts UnderGabriel Hughes14.5+115MGM68%+4.4−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialPitchersOuts UnderBubba Chandler14.5+120MGM68%+6.7−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialGamesML STLSTL @ SF0-108FD43%-7.1−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSRl_Fav_ShadowGamesRL MILCHC @ MIL-1.5+100FD51%+0.5−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSRl_Fav_ShadowGamesRL LADCIN @ LAD-1.5-140MGM50%-9.8−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialGamesRL ATHTOR @ ATH1.5-104FD55%+1.8−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSOfficialGamesTotals OverTOR @ ATH9.5+100FD64%+5.2−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSLadderK_ladder OverMichael Wacha4.5+128FD46%+5.0−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSLadder (official)K_ladder OverMichael Wacha5.5+277DK36%+9.3−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSLadder (official)K_ladder OverMichael Wacha6.5+610DK28%+13.5−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSLadderK_ladder OverSean Burke6.5+110BOL31%-15.8−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSLadder (official)K_ladder OverSean Burke7.5+200FD24%-7.1−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSLadder (official)K_ladder OverSean Burke8.5+400FD21%+2.7−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSLadder (official)K_ladder OverJacob Misiorowski9.5+210FD20%-9.0−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSLadder (official)K_ladder OverJacob Misiorowski10.5+400FD19%+0.1−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickPitchersK UnderCasey Mize4.5-120PP74%+23.8−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickPitchersK UnderPatrick Sandoval6-120PP57%+6.6−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickPitchersK UnderBubba Chandler4.5-120PP59%+8.7−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickHittersHRR OverBryce Harper1.5-120PP79%+29.1−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickHittersHRR OverEugenio Suarez0.5-120PP76%+25.5−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickHittersTB OverEugenio Suarez0.5-120PP71%+21.4−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickHittersTB OverJJ Bleday0.5-120PP79%+28.5−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickHittersTB OverAndrew Knizner0.5-120PP73%+23.5−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickHittersTB OverYordan Alvarez1.5-120PP73%+22.7−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickHittersHRR OverMichael Harris II1.5-120PP73%+22.6−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickHittersTB OverColton Cowser0.5-120PP80%+30.1−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickHittersHRR OverRiley Greene1.5-120PP75%+25.4−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickHittersHRR OverGunnar Henderson1.5-120PP74%+24.1−1.0u
Sep 8LOSSPp_PickHittersHRR OverSamuel Basallo1.5-120PP75%+25.4−1.0u

Last Night

Wed, Sep 9 Final · graded
Cards cashed3

Home runs

Bombs that left the yard · 3 on our board
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SD
2HR
Off the board
Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado
ARI
1HR
Off the board
Henry Bolte
Henry Bolte
ATH
1HR
Off the board
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATL
1HR
Off the board
Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo
BAL
1HR
Off the board
Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony
BOS
1HR
Off the board
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
BOS
1HR
Off the board
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
1HR
CASHEDHR Over 0.5+5.4u

The starter graded out a meatball chef, leaking hard contact. He duly took one out on the four-seamer at 97 — the exact pitch we circled — to cash the 0.5.

Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLE
1HR
Off the board
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLE
1HR
Off the board
Connor Norby
Connor Norby
COL
1HR
Off the board
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
CWS
1HR
Off the board
Colt Keith
Colt Keith
DET
1HR
Off the board
Cam Smith
Cam Smith
HOU
1HR
Off the board
Isaac Paredes
Isaac Paredes
HOU
1HR
Off the board
Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC
1HR
Off the board
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
KC
1HR
CASHEDHR Over 0.5+5.2u

The starter graded out a meatball chef, leaking hard contact. Jensen still cleared the 0.5, taking a slider the other way.

Denzer Guzman
Denzer Guzman
LAA
1HR
Off the board
Jose Siri
Jose Siri
LAA
1HR
Off the board
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
LAA
1HR
Off the board
Enrique Hernández
Enrique Hernández
LAD
1HR
Off the board
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LAD
1HR
Off the board
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LAD
1HR
Off the board
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LAD
1HR
Off the board
Joe Mack
Joe Mack
MIA
1HR
Off the board
Owen Caissie
Owen Caissie
MIA
1HR
Off the board
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MIL
1HR
Off the board
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MIL
1HR
Off the board
William Contreras
William Contreras
MIL
1HR
CASHEDHR Over 0.5+6.4u

The starter graded out a meatball chef, leaking hard contact. Contreras still cleared the 0.5, taking a splitter the other way.

Josh Bell
Josh Bell
MIN
1HR
Off the board
Kody Clemens
Kody Clemens
MIN
1HR
Off the board
Christopher Morel
Christopher Morel
NYM
1HR
Off the board
Francisco Lindor
Francisco Lindor
NYM
1HR
Off the board
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
NYY
1HR
Off the board
George Lombard Jr.
George Lombard Jr.
NYY
1HR
Off the board
Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.
NYY
1HR
Off the board
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
1HR
Off the board
Trea Turner
Trea Turner
PHI
1HR
Off the board
Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez
PIT
1HR
Off the board
Leo Bernal
Leo Bernal
STL
1HR
Off the board
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TB
1HR
Off the board
Corey Seager
Corey Seager
TEX
1HR
Off the board
Jake Burger
Jake Burger
TEX
1HR
Off the board
Keibert Ruiz
Keibert Ruiz
WAS
1HR
Off the board

Strikeout lines

Starters who racked them up · 3 on our board
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD
10K
IP7.0
Off the board
Will Warren
Will Warren
NYY
8K
IP6.0
Off the board
Hunter Brown
Hunter Brown
HOU
7K
IP5.0
Off the board
Logan Henderson
Logan Henderson
MIL
6K
IP5.0
LADDER6.57.51U8.51U-2.0u
Our ladder — the climb is above
Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman
CHC
6K
IP4.0
Off the board
Tomoyuki Sugano
Tomoyuki Sugano
COL
5K
IP6.0
Off the board
Ryan Johnson
Ryan Johnson
LAA
5K
IP6.0
Off the board
Kade Anderson
Kade Anderson
SEA
5K
IP6.0
Off the board
Shane Baz
Shane Baz
BAL
5K
IP5.2
Off the board
Reynaldo López
Reynaldo López
ATL
5K
IP4.2
Off the board
Andre Pallante
Andre Pallante
STL
4K
IP5.0
Off the board
Brady Basso
Brady Basso
ATH
4K
IP4.0
Off the board
Robert Stock
Robert Stock
NYM
4K
IP4.0
Off the board
Cristopher Sánchez
Cristopher Sánchez
PHI
3K
IP6.0
LADDER6.57.51U8.51U-2.0u
Our ladder — the climb is above
Daniel Lynch IV
Daniel Lynch IV
KC
3K
IP5.0
Off the board
Jake Bennett
Jake Bennett
BOS
2K
IP5.1
Our play didn’t cashK Over 5.5
Griffin Jax
Griffin Jax
TB
2K
IP5.0
Off the board
Keider Montero
Keider Montero
DET
2K
IP4.0
Off the board
Blade Tidwell
Blade Tidwell
SF
2K
IP4.0
Off the board
Davis Martin
Davis Martin
CWS
1K
IP5.0
Off the board
Cody Bradford
Cody Bradford
TEX
1K
IP4.0
Off the board