SHADOW Testing phase — every number on this page is a tracked shadow pick (record_type=shadow), not a betting record. The grading anchor is unset; nothing here counts until a lane is promoted at the checkpoint.

Built from the graded nights’ grade files and the go-live status file · Kalshi prices are the fee-inclusive ask in American odds · DraftKings prices are American via ESPN, vig included.

NBA Labs · Season progress · Friday, October 30, 2026

The Lab Shows
Its Work.

This is the shadow testing phase. Every NBA Labs pick since Friday, October 23, 2026 is locked before tip, graded off the NBA’s official game logs and tracked here in the open — win or lose. None of it counts as a record until the Monday, November 16, 2026 checkpoint.

Shadow record32-38-0

Shadow units-0.73u

Nights graded8

Checkpoint2026-11-16

The Track Record

Every graded pick by range — record, units and ROI at the price it locked at, flat 1-unit stakes, the real number win or lose. Shadow — not a betting record: nothing here counts until a lane is promoted at the checkpoint.

Record

32-38-0

46% win rate

Units

-0.73u

net, flat 1u stakes

ROI

-1%

return on risk

Best market

+1.49u

Rebounds

Season

Fri Oct 23 → Fri Oct 30 · 8 nights graded

picks graded

By market

Net shadow units by market, graded in range — best first.

Rebounds20 picks

W-L 9–11

+1.49u

+7%

Points50 picks

W-L 23–27

-2.22u

-4%

By tier

PLAY cleared the full shadow gate; LEAN is the test line on a game with no PLAY.

PLAY29 picks

W-L 16–13

+5.62u

+19%

LEAN41 picks

W-L 16–25

-6.35u

-15%

Daily P&L

Net shadow units by night — tap a date for the slate.

October 2026

SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

23-2.83u7-11 24+2.87u7-3 25-3.48u1-4 26+2.60u6-6 27-1.41u2-4 28-1.43u7-7 29+1.98u1-2 30+0.95u1-1

up nightdown nightTap a night to open its full card below.

The Shadow Record

Every graded pick at the price it locked at, flat 1-unit stakes, graded off the NBA’s official game logs. Shadow testing: tracked in the open, not a betting record.

SHADOW

Shadow record (W-L-P)

32-38-0

0 void · 0 pending

Units

-0.73u

flat 1-unit stakes

ROI

-1%

units per graded pick

Picks

across 55 games

Nights graded

Fri Oct 23 → Fri Oct 30

PLAY vs LEAN

PLAY cleared the full shadow gate · LEAN = the test line on a game with no PLAY.

BucketW-L-PUnitsROI

PLAY29 picks16-13-0+5.62u+19%

LEAN41 picks16-25-0-6.35u-15%

Kalshi vs DraftKings

Where each pick was taken — Kalshi is an exchange, DraftKings a sportsbook.

BucketW-L-PUnitsROI

DraftKings sportsbook34 picks18-16-0+0.37u+1%

Kalshi exchange36 picks14-22-0-1.10u-3%

By market & side

Points and rebounds lines, over and under.

BucketW-L-PUnitsROI

PTS over42 picks21-21-0+1.90u+5%

PTS under8 picks2-6-0-4.12u-51%

REB over9 picks3-6-0+1.34u+15%

REB under11 picks6-5-0+0.15u+1%

By odds band

The price each pick locked at, biggest favorite to longest shot. “Won X% vs Y% implied” = how often it hit vs the hit rate that price needed to break even.

BucketW-L-PUnitsROI

≤ -2004 picks · won 50% vs 77% implied2-2-0-1.33u-33%

-199 to -1409 picks · won 56% vs 62% implied5-4-0-0.79u-9%

-139 to -11115 picks · won 67% vs 55% implied10-5-0+3.22u+21%

-110 to +11013 picks · won 54% vs 50% implied7-6-0+0.66u+5%

+111 to +16012 picks · won 25% vs 42% implied3-9-0-5.05u-42%

+161 to +2506 picks · won 50% vs 33% implied3-3-0+3.02u+50%

+251 or longer11 picks · won 18% vs 20% implied2-9-0-0.46u-4%

Units, night by night

Cumulative shadow units after each graded night · flat 1-unit stakes

-0.73u

-4u-3u-2u-1u0u1u

Start10/2310/2410/2510/2610/2710/2810/2910/30

Best night +2.87u Sat Oct 24Worst night -3.48u Sun Oct 25up night down night

Go-Live Readiness

What has to be true before any NBA lane leaves shadow testing — every gate, its status and the evidence behind it.

Checkpoint · Monday, November 16, 202618 days to go

VERDICTNOT READY — keep tracking in shadow. No lane has beaten the Kalshi price or the close yet; W-L on 65 picks is noise.

Status as of Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 10 gates: 0 done · 5 in progress · 3 blocked · 2 not started

Engine beats the market price

Blocked

2,707 Kalshi rungs 2026-10-23→10-28: engine Brier 0.1700 vs market 0.1702 — a dead heat (engine ahead on ast/pra/reb, behind on points/3pm). The 2025-26 season backtest: the engine loses on pts/reb/ast.

Beats the closing line (CLV)

Blocked

26 Kalshi-priced picks: mean CLV −0.1c vs the close (negative after cost). DraftKings picks have no close yet.

Enough graded picks to judge W-L

In progress

65 picks over 6 nights. At this size flat ROI has a ±28% 95% band (per-pick SD 1.14u); judge on Brier + CLV, not W-L.

Grader integrity

In progress

Fixed 2026-10-29: duplicate game-log rows are summed (Booker 10-26 = the box score) and every night was regraded on fresh truth — Tre Jones 10-23 LOSS→WIN (the 03:00 pull was stale); regraded picks match Kalshi's settlement 46/46. Still to build: a later re-grade or settlement check so a stale 03:00 pull can't stick.

Runs unattended every slate

Blocked

3 incidents in 6 nights: 10-24 network drop 17:48–21:51 ET, 10-25 Mac asleep → 2 games missed, 10-26 battery died 20:43 ET. From 10-29 each game locks inside its last hour — the Mac must be awake, online and plugged in for every tip.

Each game locks in its last hour

In progress

New rule 2026-10-29 (Rob): a game locks inside the 60 min before its own tip, on the last injury report — it sees 58 of 70 rotation outs announced on game day 10-21→10-28 (a 2–3 h lock saw 40). Through 10-28 every game locked once the first tip was 4 h out (median 3.9 h).

Price shopping across venues

In progress

Kalshi + DraftKings live; every pick takes the better of the two. The Odds API daily pull (more books) is not wired yet.

DraftKings close + CLV

Not started

DK picks (31 of 65) get no CLV until an ESPN pull at tip is wired.

Official record anchor

Not started

Set only when a lane is promoted at the checkpoint. Until then every pick is shadow.

ctbetz.com NBA section

In progress

LIVE 2026-10-29 as a shadow lane (Rob's go, auto-publish ON): this page at ctbetz.com/nba/progress/ (since 10:21 ET); the day's card at ctbetz.com/nba/ from each day's first slate run, republished at every lock. Still to do: the card's Home shows the shadow record numbers (today it links here).

Lock Timing

How early each pick locked: tip time minus lock time, from the stamps in the grade file. The rule since Thursday, October 29, 2026: each game locks inside the 60 minutes before its own tip, on the last injury report. Through October 28 every game locked once the first tip was 4 hours out.

Median lock

3.8 h

before tip

Locked inside 1 h

24%

17 of 70 picks

Locked 3 h+ early

of 70 picks · the old rule

Earliest lock

7.6 h

before tip · the latest: 0.4 h

Picks by hours locked before tip

170–1

51–2

12–3

193–4

144–5

75–6

56–7

27–8

inside 1 h1–3 h3 h+ earlyhours before tip

Engine vs Market

Every Kalshi rung on the graded nights, scored after the fact: who called it sharper — the engine’s number or the market price? Plus how our picks did against the closing price.

Board-wide read

Market ahead by a hair

3,342 Kalshi rungs over 8 nights · Brier engine 0.1709 vs market 0.1707 (lower is sharper)

Our picks vs the close

Even with the close

28 Kalshi-priced picks · mean -0.1¢ vs the Kalshi closing mid · DraftKings picks have no close yet

PTSMarket ahead750 rungs · 0.1849 vs 0.1780

REBDead even834 rungs · 0.1644 vs 0.1645

ASTEngine ahead649 rungs · 0.1382 vs 0.1421

3PMMarket ahead by a hair803 rungs · 0.1753 vs 0.1738

PRAEngine ahead306 rungs · 0.2118 vs 0.2218

Per-market reads are a few hundred rungs each and swing night to night — a read, not a verdict.

The Full Card

Every shadow pick, night by night, newest first: when it locked, the price taken, the other venue’s price, the engine’s projection, what happened. Tap a night to open it.

PLAY cleared the gateLEAN test line, lower confidence

Friday, October 30, 20262 picks · 2 games · board: market ahead by a hair

1-1-0+0.95u

De'Anthony Melton (GSW)

PLAY

REB o3.5WIN+1.95u

Taken: DraftKings +195
Other venue: Kalshi +159
Proj: 3.3
Actual: 5
Tip: 10:00 pm ET
Locked: 9:02 pm ET

1.0 h before tip

DeMar DeRozan (DEN)

LEAN

PTS o14.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings +158
Other venue: Kalshi +152
Proj: 15.4
Actual: 3
Tip: 10:00 pm ET
Locked: 9:02 pm ET

1.0 h before tip

Thursday, October 29, 20263 picks · 3 games · board: market ahead by a hair

1-2-0+1.98u

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ATL)

LEAN

PTS o24.5WIN+3.98u

Taken: Kalshi +398
Other venue: DraftKings +290
Proj: 20.9
Actual: 25
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 7:05 pm ET

0.9 h before tip

Bennedict Mathurin (NOP)

LEAN

PTS o14.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings +209
Other venue: Kalshi +173
Proj: 12.0
Actual: 10
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 7:05 pm ET

0.9 h before tip

Toumani Camara (POR)

LEAN

PTS o14.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +240
Other venue: DraftKings +227
Proj: 14.5
Actual: 13
Tip: 10:00 pm ET
Locked: 9:03 pm ET

0.9 h before tip

Wednesday, October 28, 202614 picks · 12 games · board: engine well ahead

7-7-0-1.43u

Jaylen Brown (PHI)

LEAN

PTS o19.5WIN+0.65u

Taken: Kalshi -154
Other venue: DraftKings -163
Proj: 26.8
Actual: 20
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:06 pm ET

3.9 h before tip

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA)

PLAY

PTS u31.5WIN+0.91u

Taken: DraftKings -110
Other venue: —
Proj: 26.0
Actual: 24
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:06 pm ET

3.9 h before tip

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA)

PLAY

REB u11.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings -126
Other venue: Kalshi -131
Proj: 9.4
Actual: 18
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:06 pm ET

3.9 h before tip

James Harden (CLE)

LEAN

PTS o19.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings +121
Other venue: Kalshi +119
Proj: 20.8
Actual: 16
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:06 pm ET

3.9 h before tip

Daniss Jenkins (DET)

LEAN

PTS o14.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +490
Other venue: DraftKings +431
Proj: 10.7
Actual: 14
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 5:47 pm ET

1.2 h before tip

Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL)

LEAN

PTS o19.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +1074
Other venue: DraftKings +760
Proj: 13.0
Actual: 3
Tip: 7:30 pm ET
Locked: 3:06 pm ET

4.4 h before tip

Tre Jones (CHI)

PLAY

PTS o9.5WIN+1.29u

Taken: Kalshi +129
Other venue: DraftKings +128
Proj: 12.0
Actual: 11
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:06 pm ET

4.9 h before tip

Brandin Podziemski (GSW)

PLAY

REB u5.5WIN+0.89u

Taken: DraftKings -113
Other venue: Kalshi -131
Proj: 4.6
Actual: 5
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:06 pm ET

4.9 h before tip

Myles Turner (MIL)

LEAN

REB u5.5WIN+0.78u

Taken: DraftKings -128
Other venue: Kalshi -137
Proj: 4.8
Actual: 2
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:06 pm ET

4.9 h before tip

Saddiq Bey (NOP)

LEAN

PTS o9.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings -177
Other venue: Kalshi -191
Proj: 16.1
Actual: 9
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:06 pm ET

4.9 h before tip

Stephen Curry (GSW)

PLAY

PTS u24.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings -108
Other venue: Kalshi -126
Proj: 21.9
Actual: 44
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:06 pm ET

4.9 h before tip

Keyonte George (UTA)

LEAN

PTS o19.5WIN+0.79u

Taken: DraftKings -126
Other venue: Kalshi -137
Proj: 21.8
Actual: 31
Tip: 9:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:54 pm ET

5.1 h before tip

P.J. Washington (DAL)

LEAN

PTS o9.5WIN+0.27u

Taken: DraftKings -373
Other venue: Kalshi -458
Proj: 14.1
Actual: 18
Tip: 9:30 pm ET
Locked: 8:25 pm ET

1.1 h before tip

Austin Reaves (LAL)

LEAN

PTS o19.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings -220
Other venue: Kalshi -322
Proj: 22.6
Actual: 16
Tip: 10:30 pm ET
Locked: 4:11 pm ET

6.3 h before tip

Tuesday, October 27, 20266 picks · 4 games · board: market ahead by a hair

2-4-0-1.41u

Jayson Tatum (BOS)

LEAN

PTS u26.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings -118
Other venue: —
Proj: 21.7
Actual: 40
Tip: 7:30 pm ET
Locked: 3:34 pm ET

3.9 h before tip

Sam Hauser (BOS)

PLAY

PTS o9.5WIN+1.89u

Taken: DraftKings +189
Other venue: Kalshi +166
Proj: 9.3
Actual: 11
Tip: 7:30 pm ET
Locked: 6:40 pm ET

0.8 h before tip

Duncan Robinson (DET)

LEAN

PTS o14.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +159
Other venue: DraftKings +158
Proj: 14.2
Actual: 12
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:34 pm ET

4.4 h before tip

De'Aaron Fox (SAS)

LEAN

PTS o14.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings -132
Other venue: Kalshi -148
Proj: 17.9
Actual: 11
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:34 pm ET

4.4 h before tip

Jrue Holiday (POR)

LEAN

PTS o9.5WIN+0.70u

Taken: DraftKings -142
Other venue: Kalshi -154
Proj: 13.9
Actual: 22
Tip: 11:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:34 pm ET

7.4 h before tip

Quentin Grimes (LAL)

PLAY

PTS o9.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings +128
Other venue: Kalshi +114
Proj: 11.1
Actual: 2
Tip: 11:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:09 pm ET

4.8 h before tip

Monday, October 26, 202612 picks · 9 games · board: market ahead

6-6-0+2.60u

Sam Merrill (CLE)

LEAN

PTS o9.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +181
Other venue: DraftKings +153
Proj: 9.9
Actual: 9
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:12 pm ET

3.8 h before tip

Alex Sarr (WAS)

LEAN

PTS o9.5WIN+0.63u

Taken: DraftKings -158
Other venue: Kalshi -183
Proj: 11.2
Actual: 12
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:12 pm ET

3.8 h before tip

Jalen Smith (CHI)

PLAY

REB u7.5WIN+0.79u

Taken: Kalshi -126
Other venue: DraftKings -129
Proj: 5.9
Actual: 6
Tip: 7:30 pm ET
Locked: 3:12 pm ET

4.3 h before tip

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA)

PLAY

REB u11.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings -122
Other venue: Kalshi -131
Proj: 9.1
Actual: 14
Tip: 7:30 pm ET
Locked: 3:12 pm ET

4.3 h before tip

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA)

PLAY

PTS u29.5WIN+0.97u

Taken: DraftKings -103
Other venue: Kalshi -112
Proj: 26.6
Actual: 29
Tip: 7:30 pm ET
Locked: 6:37 pm ET

0.9 h before tip

Devin Booker (PHX)

LEAN

PTS o24.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +140
Other venue: DraftKings +108
Proj: 25.8
Actual: 3
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:12 pm ET

4.8 h before tip

Aaron Nesmith (IND)

LEAN

PTS o14.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings +265
Other venue: Kalshi +240
Proj: 13.1
Actual: 13
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:12 pm ET

4.8 h before tip

Kevin Durant (HOU)

LEAN

REB o7.5WIN+4.56u

Taken: Kalshi +456
Other venue: —
Proj: 5.8
Actual: 9
Tip: 8:30 pm ET
Locked: 3:12 pm ET

5.3 h before tip

Keyonte George (UTA)

LEAN

PTS o19.5WIN+0.89u

Taken: DraftKings -112
Other venue: Kalshi -116
Proj: 23.5
Actual: 26
Tip: 9:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:12 pm ET

5.8 h before tip

Jaren Jackson Jr. (UTA)

PLAY

PTS o9.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings -740
Other venue: Kalshi -1684
Proj: 21.1
Actual: 6
Tip: 9:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:27 pm ET

5.5 h before tip

Jerami Grant (MEM)

PLAY

PTS o9.5WIN+0.75u

Taken: DraftKings -133
Other venue: Kalshi -183
Proj: 14.9
Actual: 13
Tip: 9:00 pm ET
Locked: 8:27 pm ET

0.5 h before tip

Brandin Podziemski (GSW)

LEAN

REB u5.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi -161
Other venue: —
Proj: 4.1
Actual: 7
Tip: 10:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:12 pm ET

6.8 h before tip

Sunday, October 25, 20265 picks · 5 games · board: engine ahead by a hair

1-4-0-3.48u

Chet Holmgren (OKC)

LEAN

REB o7.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi -137
Other venue: —
Proj: 9.3
Actual: 4
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:34 pm ET

0.4 h before tip

Miles McBride (NYK)

LEAN

PTS o9.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +152
Other venue: DraftKings +115
Proj: 10.6
Actual: 1
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:34 pm ET

0.4 h before tip

Ayo Dosunmu (MIN)

LEAN

REB o5.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings +390
Other venue: Kalshi +373
Proj: 4.6
Actual: 3
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:34 pm ET

0.4 h before tip

Duncan Robinson (DET)

LEAN

PTS o9.5WIN+0.52u

Taken: Kalshi -191
Other venue: DraftKings -273
Proj: 14.0
Actual: 21
Tip: 7:30 pm ET
Locked: 6:34 pm ET

0.9 h before tip

Precious Achiuwa (SAC)

LEAN

PTS o14.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +351
Other venue: DraftKings +313
Proj: 13.8
Actual: 12
Tip: 9:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:34 pm ET

2.4 h before tip

Saturday, October 24, 202610 picks · 8 games · board: engine ahead

7-3-0+2.87u

Bam Adebayo (MIA)

PLAY

REB u9.5WIN+0.81u

Taken: DraftKings -124
Other venue: Kalshi -126
Proj: 7.7
Actual: 8
Tip: 6:00 pm ET
Locked: 2:09 pm ET

3.8 h before tip

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA)

PLAY

REB u10.5WIN+0.99u

Taken: DraftKings -101
Other venue: —
Proj: 8.3
Actual: 6
Tip: 6:00 pm ET
Locked: 2:09 pm ET

3.8 h before tip

Donovan Mitchell (CLE)

LEAN

REB o7.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +625
Other venue: DraftKings +495
Proj: 5.6
Actual: 5
Tip: 7:30 pm ET
Locked: 2:09 pm ET

5.3 h before tip

Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL)

LEAN

PTS o14.5WIN+0.93u

Taken: Kalshi -107
Other venue: DraftKings -115
Proj: 17.3
Actual: 21
Tip: 7:30 pm ET
Locked: 2:09 pm ET

5.3 h before tip

De'Aaron Fox (SAS)

PLAY

PTS o14.5WIN+0.93u

Taken: DraftKings -107
Other venue: Kalshi -116
Proj: 18.0
Actual: 19
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 2:40 pm ET

5.3 h before tip

Tre Jones (CHI)

PLAY

PTS o9.5WIN+0.92u

Taken: DraftKings -109
Other venue: —
Proj: 14.4
Actual: 10
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 3:43 pm ET

4.3 h before tip

Jalen Johnson (ATL)

LEAN

REB u9.5WIN+0.89u

Taken: DraftKings -112
Other venue: Kalshi -121
Proj: 8.5
Actual: 9
Tip: 8:30 pm ET
Locked: 2:09 pm ET

6.3 h before tip

Aaron Wiggins (ATL)

PLAY

REB u3.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings -157
Other venue: Kalshi -191
Proj: 2.6
Actual: 5
Tip: 8:30 pm ET
Locked: 2:25 pm ET

6.1 h before tip

Jamal Murray (DEN)

LEAN

REB o4.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: DraftKings +110
Other venue: —
Proj: 5.7
Actual: 3
Tip: 9:00 pm ET
Locked: 2:09 pm ET

6.8 h before tip

Devin Booker (PHX)

LEAN

PTS o19.5WIN+0.40u

Taken: DraftKings -251
Other venue: Kalshi -290
Proj: 25.9
Actual: 43
Tip: 10:00 pm ET
Locked: 2:25 pm ET

7.6 h before tip

Friday, October 23, 202618 picks · 12 games · board: market well ahead

7-11-0-2.83u

Norman Powell (CHI)

PLAY

PTS u19.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +124
Other venue: —
Proj: 16.6
Actual: 25
Tip: 4:00 pm ET
Locked: 2:56 pm ET

1.1 h before tip

Tre Jones (CHI)

PLAY

PTS o9.5WIN+1.01u

Taken: Kalshi +101
Other venue: —
Proj: 13.5
Actual: 11
Tip: 4:00 pm ET
Locked: 2:56 pm ET

1.1 h before tip

Jayson Tatum (BOS)

PLAY

PTS u24.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +114
Other venue: —
Proj: 19.2
Actual: 36
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:05 pm ET

0.9 h before tip

Aaron Nesmith (IND)

LEAN

PTS o9.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi -191
Other venue: —
Proj: 16.4
Actual: 9
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

0.6 h before tip

Deandre Ayton (WAS)

LEAN

PTS o9.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +252
Other venue: —
Proj: 10.6
Actual: 4
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

0.6 h before tip

Dyson Daniels (ATL)

LEAN

PTS o14.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +252
Other venue: —
Proj: 13.2
Actual: 11
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

0.6 h before tip

Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL)

LEAN

PTS o9.5WIN+0.79u

Taken: Kalshi -126
Other venue: —
Proj: 13.8
Actual: 20
Tip: 7:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

0.6 h before tip

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA)

PLAY

REB u9.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +105
Other venue: —
Proj: 7.9
Actual: 12
Tip: 8:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

1.6 h before tip

Derik Queen (NOP)

PLAY

PTS o9.5WIN+1.52u

Taken: Kalshi +152
Other venue: —
Proj: 13.0
Actual: 12
Tip: 9:30 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

3.1 h before tip

Derik Queen (NOP)

PLAY

REB o5.5WIN+0.83u

Taken: Kalshi -121
Other venue: —
Proj: 8.6
Actual: 7
Tip: 9:30 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

3.1 h before tip

Dylan Harper (SAS)

PLAY

PTS u14.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +152
Other venue: —
Proj: 13.2
Actual: 20
Tip: 9:30 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

3.1 h before tip

Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU)

PLAY

PTS o14.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +101
Other venue: —
Proj: 18.6
Actual: 7
Tip: 9:30 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

3.1 h before tip

Saddiq Bey (NOP)

PLAY

PTS o14.5WIN+2.18u

Taken: Kalshi +218
Other venue: —
Proj: 17.9
Actual: 20
Tip: 9:30 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

3.1 h before tip

Saddiq Bey (NOP)

PLAY

REB o3.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +105
Other venue: —
Proj: 5.1
Actual: 3
Tip: 9:30 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

3.1 h before tip

Victor Wembanyama (SAS)

PLAY

PTS u24.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +101
Other venue: —
Proj: 21.1
Actual: 25
Tip: 9:30 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

3.1 h before tip

Brandin Podziemski (GSW)

LEAN

PTS o14.5WIN+1.14u

Taken: Kalshi +114
Other venue: —
Proj: 16.8
Actual: 18
Tip: 10:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

3.6 h before tip

Brook Lopez (LAC)

LEAN

REB o7.5LOSS-1.00u

Taken: Kalshi +490
Other venue: —
Proj: 5.7
Actual: 4
Tip: 10:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

3.6 h before tip

Toumani Camara (POR)

LEAN

PTS o9.5WIN+0.70u

Taken: Kalshi -142
Other venue: —
Proj: 14.7
Actual: 19
Tip: 10:00 pm ET
Locked: 6:23 pm ET

3.6 h before tip

The Lab ShowsIts Work.

The Track Record

By market

By tier

By market

By tier

By market

By tier

By market

By tier

Daily P&L

The Shadow Record

PLAY vs LEAN

Kalshi vs DraftKings

By market & side

By odds band

Units, night by night

Go-Live Readiness

Lock Timing

Engine vs Market

The Full Card

The Lab Shows
Its Work.