Through Week 7 · NFL Prop Engine

Road to Live.

LIVE TEST: week 1 of live testing; no lane has cleared the gate yet

Live record · every pick

56-66

45.9% · -15.09u

Closest to the gate

68/100

UNDER side · 39-29 · +6.45u

Beat the closing line

of 122 picks · even 61 · worse 31

ATD calibration

TDs vs 49.0 expected · 263 on the board

LIVE TEST. Nothing here is proven yet. Every pick is frozen before kickoff and graded at the frozen DraftKings line on nflverse play-by-play. Units are 1u flat at -110, where break-even is 52.4%. A lane goes live only through the gate below.

The gate

31 lanes on the meter · 0 READY.

A lane goes live when it has 100 live picks AND a record a coin-flip bettor at -110 would match less than 5% of the time (62-38 or better at 100 picks), AND Rob says go.

100 live picksFrozen before kickoff, then graded. The back-check never counts.
62-38 or betterA coin-flip bettor at -110 gets there less than 5% of the time.
Rob says goThe official record starts that week.

Lane = one market and side (Rec Yds UNDER). Side = every OVER or every UNDER across markets. Line move = every pick, split by how the DraftKings line moved vs ours since open. READY = cleared the gate · TESTING = units up or even, still counting · COLD = units down.

UNDERside
TESTING
68/100
39-29 · 57.4% · +6.45u · ~Week 8
a coin at -110 does this 1 in 4 times
Receptions UNDERlane
TESTING
21/100
14-7 · 66.7% · +5.73u · ~Week 11
a coin at -110 does this 1 in 7 times
Rec Yds UNDERlane
TESTING
20/100
11-9 · 55.0% · +1.00u · ~Week 11
a coin at -110 does this 1 in 2 times
INTs OVERlane
TESTING
5/100
3-2 · 60.0% · +0.73u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this 1 in 2 times
Pass TDs UNDERlane
TESTING
4/100
3-1 · 75.0% · +1.73u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this 1 in 3 times
Rush Yds UNDERlane
TESTING
4/100
3-1 · 75.0% · +1.73u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this 1 in 3 times
Pass TDs OVERlane
TESTING
3/100
2-1 · 66.7% · +0.82u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this 1 in 2 times
Longest Rush UNDERlane
TESTING
2/100
2-0 · 100.0% · +1.82u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this 1 in 4 times
Carries OVERlane
TESTING
1/100
1-0 · 100.0% · +0.91u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this 1 in 2 times
Carries UNDERlane
TESTING
1/100
1-0 · 100.0% · +0.91u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this 1 in 2 times
Pass Yds UNDERlane
TESTING
1/100
1-0 · 100.0% · +0.91u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this 1 in 2 times
No moveline move
COLD
69/100
34-35 · 49.3% · -4.09u · ~Week 8
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
OVERside
COLD
54/100
17-37 · 31.5% · -21.55u · ~Week 8
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Book moved againstline move
COLD
34/100
16-18 · 47.1% · -3.45u · ~Week 9
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Book with usline move
COLD
19/100
6-13 · 31.6% · -7.55u · ~Week 12
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Receptions OVERlane
COLD
12/100
4-8 · 33.3% · -4.36u · ~Week 15
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Rec Yds OVERlane
COLD
11/100
5-6 · 45.5% · -1.45u · ~Week 16
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Longest Rec UNDERlane
COLD
8/100
3-5 · 37.5% · -2.27u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Rush Yds OVERlane
COLD
5/100
2-3 · 40.0% · -1.18u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Pass Yds OVERlane
COLD
4/100
0-4 · 0.0% · -4.00u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Completions OVERlane
COLD
3/100
0-3 · 0.0% · -3.00u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Longest Rec OVERlane
COLD
3/100
0-3 · 0.0% · -3.00u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Pass+Rush Yds OVERlane
COLD
3/100
0-3 · 0.0% · -3.00u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
INTs UNDERlane
COLD
2/100
0-2 · 0.0% · -2.00u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Pass Att OVERlane
COLD
2/100
0-2 · 0.0% · -2.00u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Pass+Rush Yds UNDERlane
COLD
2/100
1-1 · 50.0% · -0.09u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Completions UNDERlane
COLD
1/100
0-1 · 0.0% · -1.00u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Longest Pass OVERlane
COLD
1/100
0-1 · 0.0% · -1.00u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Pass Att UNDERlane
COLD
1/100
0-1 · 0.0% · -1.00u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Rush+Rec Yds OVERlane
COLD
1/100
0-1 · 0.0% · -1.00u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time
Rush+Rec Yds UNDERlane
COLD
1/100
0-1 · 0.0% · -1.00u · past Week 18 at this pace
a coin at -110 does this most of the time

Follow the Lab @CTBetz_

Every pick posts on X before kickoff and gets graded here, win or lose. No noise, just the work.

@CTBetz_

Week 7 card

Every pick we posted, graded at the frozen line, by game in kickoff order. Frozen Sat Oct 24, 2026 · 11:01 AM ET; posted on ctbetz.com Sat Oct 24, 2026 · 1:04 PM ET.

LIVE TEST

Week 7 record

56-66

45.9% · -15.09u

Games · picks

13 · 122

kickoff order below

Beat the closing line

of 122 · even 61 · worse 31

16 of 122 picks have a captured price

Prices come from a pre-kickoff snapshot; the Mac slept on battery Sat 23:48 to Sun 18:31 ET, so the Sunday day games were never snapshotted; only SNF and MNF carry book prices (taken 70 minutes before kickoff).

PIT @ NOSun 9:30 AM ET · posted 20.4h before kickoff

4-3

PITFinal

The Lab’s picks · 7

Pass Yds · PIT

Aaron Rodgers

Over 234.5 Pass Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual212PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Pass TDs · NO

Tyler Shough

Under 1.5 Pass TDs

ResultWIN+0.91uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · NO

Juwan Johnson

Under 3.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · PIT

Darnell Washington

Over 2.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Pass+Rush Yds · PIT

Aaron Rodgers

Over 239.5 Pass+Rush Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual218PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rec · NO

Chris Olave

Under 24.5 Longest Rec

ResultWIN+0.91uActual14PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rush · NO

Alvin Kamara

Under 7.5 Longest Rush

ResultWIN+0.91uActual3PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

CIN @ BALSun 1:00 PM ET · posted 23.9h before kickoff

2-0

CINFinal

BAL

The Lab’s picks · 2

Receptions · CIN

Mike Gesicki

Under 2.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · CIN

Tee Higgins

Over 4.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual6PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

CLE @ TENSun 1:00 PM ET · posted 23.9h before kickoff

2-10

CLEFinal

TEN

The Lab’s picks · 12

Pass TDs · CLE

Deshaun Watson

Under 1.5 Pass TDs

ResultWIN+0.91uActual0PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Carries · CLE

Quinshon Judkins

Over 14.5 Carries

ResultWIN+0.91uActual17PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · TEN

Gunnar Helm

Under 15.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual24PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · CLE

KC Concepcion

Under 38.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual129PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · CLE

Harold Fannin Jr.

Under 29.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual91PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · TEN

Gunnar Helm

Under 2.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual3PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · CLE

KC Concepcion

Under 4.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual8PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · TEN

Elic Ayomanor

Under 1.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual3PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · CLE

Harold Fannin Jr.

Under 3.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual6PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rec · CLE

Jerry Jeudy

Over 13.5 Longest Rec

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual8PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rec · TEN

Gunnar Helm

Under 10.5 Longest Rec

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual14PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rec · CLE

Harold Fannin Jr.

Under 15.5 Longest Rec

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual36PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

IND @ MINSun 1:00 PM ET · posted 23.9h before kickoff

4-6

INDFinal

MIN

The Lab’s picks · 10

Pass Yds · IND

Daniel Jones

Over 187.5 Pass Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual108PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Completions · IND

Daniel Jones

Over 19.5 Completions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual13PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · MIN

T.J. Hockenson

Under 36.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual35PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · IND

Josh Downs

Under 49.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual18PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · MIN

Aaron Jones Sr.

Over 2.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · IND

Josh Downs

Under 4.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual2PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

INTs · IND

Daniel Jones

Over 0.5 INTs

ResultWIN+0.91uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Pass Att · IND

Daniel Jones

Over 32.5 Pass Att

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual22PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Pass+Rush Yds · IND

Daniel Jones

Over 197.5 Pass+Rush Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual121PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rec · IND

Laquon Treadwell

Over 13.5 Longest Rec

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual12PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

MIA @ NYJSun 1:00 PM ET · posted 23.9h before kickoff

5-4

MIAFinal

NYJ

The Lab’s picks · 9

Completions · NYJ

Geno Smith

Under 20.5 Completions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual23PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Pass TDs · NYJ

Geno Smith

Under 1.5 Pass TDs

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual3PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rush Yds · MIA

Ollie Gordon II

Over 53.5 Rush Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual103PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · NYJ

Garrett Wilson

Under 64.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual26PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · NYJ

Mason Taylor

Over 21.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual62PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · NYJ

Garrett Wilson

Under 5.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual2PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · NYJ

Mason Taylor

Over 2.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual5PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

INTs · NYJ

Geno Smith

Under 0.5 INTs

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Pass+Rush Yds · MIA

Malik Willis

Under 217.5 Pass+Rush Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual245PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

NYG @ HOUSun 1:00 PM ET · posted 23.9h before kickoff

5-6

NYGFinal

HOU

The Lab’s picks · 11

Rush Yds · HOU

C.J. Stroud

Over 9.5 Rush Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual4PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · NYG

Darnell Mooney

Over 17.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual4PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · HOU

Nico Collins

Under 67.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual6PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · NYG

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Under 8.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual2PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · HOU

Jaylin Noel

Over 27.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual-3PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · NYG

Malik Nabers

Over 70.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual111PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · NYG

Darnell Mooney

Over 1.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · NYG

Isaiah Likely

Over 5.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual2PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · HOU

Kayshon Boutte

Over 1.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · HOU

Woody Marks

Under 2.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · NYG

Malik Nabers

Over 5.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual7PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

SF @ ATLSun 1:00 PM ET · posted 23.9h before kickoff

2-5

SFFinal

ATL

The Lab’s picks · 7

Pass TDs · SF

Brock Purdy

Over 1.5 Pass TDs

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Carries · SF

Christian McCaffrey

Under 15.5 Carries

ResultWIN+0.91uActual7PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rush Yds · ATL

Bijan Robinson

Under 88.5 Rush Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual63PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Rush Yds · SF

Kaelon Black

Under 29.5 Rush Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual63PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · ATL

Bijan Robinson

Under 29.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual59PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · ATL

Bijan Robinson

Under 3.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual5PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

INTs · SF

Brock Purdy

Under 0.5 INTs

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual2PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

TB @ CARSun 1:00 PM ET · posted 23.9h before kickoff

10-4

TBFinal

CAR

The Lab’s picks · 14

Rush Yds · TB

Bucky Irving

Over 65.5 Rush Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual106PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rush Yds · CAR

Bryce Young

Under 10.5 Rush Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual9PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · CAR

Darren Waller

Over 22.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual50PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · TB

Cade Otton

Under 40.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual0PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · TB

Kenny Gainwell

Under 13.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual0PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · CAR

Tommy Tremble

Over 15.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual8PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · TB

Bucky Irving

Under 17.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual4PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · CAR

Darren Waller

Over 2.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · TB

Cade Otton

Under 3.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual0PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · TB

Kenny Gainwell

Under 2.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual0PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · TB

Bucky Irving

Under 2.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rec · TB

Cade Otton

Under 17.5 Longest Rec

ResultWIN+0.91uActual0PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rush+Rec Yds · CAR

Chuba Hubbard

Over 86.5 Rush+Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual60PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rush+Rec Yds · TB

Kenny Gainwell

Under 27.5 Rush+Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual88PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

DEN @ ARISun 4:05 PM ET · posted 27.0h before kickoff

2-7

DENFinal

ARI

The Lab’s picks · 9

Rush Yds · DEN

RJ Harvey

Over 14.5 Rush Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual6PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · DEN

Courtland Sutton

Under 33.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual45PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · ARI

Tyler Allgeier

Under 11.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual30PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · DEN

Courtland Sutton

Under 3.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual3PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · DEN

Jaylen Waddle

Under 4.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual4PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · ARI

Tyler Allgeier

Under 2.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual3PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

INTs · ARI

Jacoby Brissett

Over 0.5 INTs

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual0PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rec · DEN

Courtland Sutton

Under 14.5 Longest Rec

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual20PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rec · ARI

Tyler Allgeier

Under 7.5 Longest Rec

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual22PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

GB @ DETSun 4:25 PM ET · posted 27.3h before kickoff

2-5

GBFinal

DET

The Lab’s picks · 7

Pass TDs · GB

Jordan Love

Over 1.5 Pass TDs

ResultWIN+0.91uActual2PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rush Yds · GB

Jordan Love

Over 6.5 Rush Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual0PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · DET

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Under 78.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual153PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · DET

Isaac TeSlaa

Over 23.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual10PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · DET

Sam LaPorta

Under 5.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rec · DET

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Under 22.5 Longest Rec

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual40PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rec · DET

Isaac TeSlaa

Over 16.5 Longest Rec

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual10PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

LA @ LVSun 4:25 PM ET · posted 27.3h before kickoff

5-4

LAFinal

The Lab’s picks · 9

Pass Yds · LA

Matthew Stafford

Over 258.5 Pass Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual195PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Completions · LA

Matthew Stafford

Over 23.5 Completions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual23PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Pass TDs · LA

Matthew Stafford

Over 1.5 Pass TDs

ResultWIN+0.91uActual3PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · LA

Blake Corum

Over 10.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual8PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · LV

Ashton Jeanty

Over 25.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual61PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Receptions · LV

Ashton Jeanty

Over 3.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual8PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

INTs · LA

Matthew Stafford

Over 0.5 INTs

ResultWIN+0.91uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

INTs · LV

Kirk Cousins

Over 0.5 INTs

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual0PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rush · LV

Ashton Jeanty

Under 12.5 Longest Rush

ResultWIN+0.91uActual8PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

KC @ SEASun 8:20 PM ET · posted 31.3h before kickoff

13-4

KCFinal

SEA

The Lab’s picks · 17

Pass Yds · KC

Patrick Mahomes

Under 220.5 Pass Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual165Price−115BRGradeB

Books

BetRivers 220.5 -115

Bovada211.5+110
DK221.5-111
FanDuel216.5-113
BetOnline221.5-114
BetRivers220.5-115
BetMGM219.5-115

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Pass TDs · SEA

Sam Darnold

Under 1.5 Pass TDs

ResultWIN+0.91uActual1Price−137DKGradeB

Books

DK 1.5 -137

DK1.5-137
FanDuel1.5-144
Bovada1.5-145
BetOnline1.5-147
BetMGM1.5-160
BetRivers1.5-167

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Rush Yds · KC

Patrick Mahomes

Under 17.5 Rush Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual14Price−112DKGradeB

Books

DK 17.5 -112

BetMGM16.5-110
DK17.5-112
FanDuel16.5-113
BetRivers15.5-113
BetOnline17.5-114
Bovada17.5-115

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Rec Yds · KC

Travis Kelce

Under 46.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual44Price−111DKGradeB

Books

DK 46.5 -111

DK46.5-111
FanDuel45.5-113
BetOnline45.5-114
BetRivers47.5-114
BetMGM45.5-115
Bovada46.5-115

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Rec Yds · KC

Noah Gray

Under 17.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual44PriceNo price yetGradeB

Books

no book at 17.5 by kickoff (DK 16.5 -113)

BetMGM14.5-105
BetOnline15.5-110
BetRivers15.5-110
DK16.5-113
FanDuel15.5-113
Bovada16.5-115

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Rec Yds · KC

Kenneth Walker III

Under 19.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual21Price−117at 20.5 (BR)GradeB

Books

BetRivers 20.5 -117 (line moved)

BetOnline21.5-105
FanDuel21.5-113
BetMGM22.5-115
DK23.5-116
BetRivers20.5-117
Bovada23.5-120

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Rec Yds · KC

Xavier Worthy

Under 50.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual11Price−115BOVGradeB

Books

Bovada 50.5 -115

DK49.5-110
BetOnline49.5-112
FanDuel49.5-113
BetMGM49.5-115
Bovada50.5-115
BetRivers51.5-118

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Rec Yds · SEA

Emanuel Wilson

Over 8.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual15Price+100at 7.5 (BOL)GradeB

Books

BetOnline 7.5 +100 (line moved)

BetOnline7.5+100
FanDuel6.5-102
DK6.5-108
Bovada6.5-115
BetMGM6.5-120

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Rec Yds · KC

Jalen Royals

Under 19.5 Rec Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual0Price−111at 21.5 (DK)GradeB

Books

DK 21.5 -111 (line moved)

DK21.5-111
BetMGM22.5-111
BetOnline21.5-112
FanDuel21.5-113
BetRivers21.5-115
Bovada21.5-115

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Receptions · KC

Travis Kelce

Under 4.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual4Price−135BOVGradeA

Books

Bovada 4.5 -135

Bovada4.5-135
DK4.5-136
BetOnline4.5-141
FanDuel4.5-152
BetMGM4.5-155

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Receptions · SEA

Rashid Shaheed

Under 2.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual2Price−150BOVGradeB

Books

Bovada 2.5 -150

Bovada2.5-150
DK2.5-151
BetOnline2.5-156
FanDuel2.5-158
BetMGM2.5-165

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Receptions · KC

Kenneth Walker III

Under 3.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual4Price−129DKGradeB

Books

DK 3.5 -129

DK3.5-129
Bovada3.5-135
BetOnline3.5-139
BetMGM3.5-150
FanDuel3.5-160

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

Receptions · KC

Xavier Worthy

Under 4.5 Receptions

ResultWIN+0.91uActual3Price+105BOVGradeB

Books

Bovada 4.5 +105

Bovada4.5+105
DK4.5+100
BetOnline4.5-105
BetMGM4.5-111
FanDuel4.5-114

price taken Sun 7:14 PM ET

INTs · SEA

Sam Darnold

Over 0.5 INTs

ResultWIN+0.91uActual1PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Pass Att · KC

Patrick Mahomes

Under 32.5 Pass Att

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual33PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Pass+Rush Yds · KC

Patrick Mahomes

Under 240.5 Pass+Rush Yds

ResultWIN+0.91uActual179PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Rec · KC

Kenneth Walker III

Under 10.5 Longest Rec

ResultWIN+0.91uActual7PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

DAL @ PHIMon 8:15 PM ET · posted 55.2h before kickoff

0-8

DALFinal

PHI

The Lab’s picks · 8

Pass Yds · DAL

Dak Prescott

Over 265.5 Pass Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual212Price−113at 263.5 (FD)GradeA

Books

FanDuel 263.5 -113 (line moved)

Bovada272.5+110
DK262.5-113
FanDuel263.5-113
BetOnline262.5-115
BetMGM261.5-115
BetRivers261.5-117

price taken Mon 7:07 PM ET

Completions · DAL

Dak Prescott

Over 23.5 Completions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual15PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Rec Yds · DAL

CeeDee Lamb

Over 82.5 Rec Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual74Price−115at 81.5 (BR)GradeB

Books

BetRivers 81.5 -115 (line moved)

FanDuel79.5-113
DK79.5-114
BetRivers81.5-115
Bovada79.5-115
BetOnline81.5-120
BetMGM80.5-120

price taken Mon 7:07 PM ET

Receptions · DAL

CeeDee Lamb

Over 7.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual5Price−133at 6.5 (DK)GradeB

Books

DK 6.5 -133 (line moved)

DK6.5-133
BetMGM6.5-135
Bovada6.5-135
FanDuel6.5-136
BetOnline6.5-143
BetRivers6.5-143

price taken Mon 7:07 PM ET

Receptions · DAL

George Pickens

Over 4.5 Receptions

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual4Price−138DKGradeB

Books

DK 4.5 -138

DK4.5-138
Bovada4.5-145
BetOnline4.5-149
BetRivers4.5-150
FanDuel4.5-154
BetMGM4.5-155

price taken Mon 7:07 PM ET

Pass Att · DAL

Dak Prescott

Over 37.5 Pass Att

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual27PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Longest Pass · DAL

Dak Prescott

Over 36.5 Longest Pass

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual35PriceNo price yetGradeB

Booksprice not captured

Pass+Rush Yds · DAL

Dak Prescott

Over 278.5 Pass+Rush Yds

ResultLOSS−1.00uActual220PriceNo price yetGradeA

Booksprice not captured

Anytime TD

Value = the best pre-kickoff price pays more than our fair odds. Check news = the price is so far past fair that the books likely know something we don't; never a value pick. Model = our chance he scores. Hits first.

Value picks: 12 TDs of 68 graded (expected 13.7) · -14.04u at the price taken.

Whole ATD board: 52 TDs vs 49.0 expected (263 players).

Value: pays more than fair 12 hits · 75 picks

Player	Result	Model	Fair	Best price
Jonathan TaylorIND · RB	HIT	55%	-121	-110BetMGM
CeeDee LambDAL · WR	HIT	44%	+129	+130FanDuel
Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RB	HIT	37%	+172	+190DK
George PickensDAL · WR	HIT	36%	+177	+180FanDuel
Tucker KraftGB · TE	HIT	36%	+178	+180BetMGM
Jameson WilliamsDET · WR	HIT	36%	+181	+210BetMGM
Devaughn VeleNO · WR	HIT	31%	+222	+295DK
Tre TuckerLV · WR	HIT	29%	+244	+340DK
Samaje PerineCIN · RB	HIT	25%	+308	+310FanDuel
Kaelon BlackSF · RB	HIT	24%	+309	+420FanDuel
Devin SingletaryNYG · RB	HIT	13%	+664	+750DK
Drew SampleCIN · TE	HIT	8%	+1096	+1100BetRivers
Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB	MISS	61%	-157	-125DK
Chuba HubbardCAR · RB	MISS	58%	-139	-118BetMGM
Sam LaPortaDET · TE	MISS	37%	+173	+180BetMGM
Chris OlaveNO · WR	MISS	36%	+177	+190DK
Michael WilsonARI · WR	MISS	36%	+181	+240DK
Pat FreiermuthPIT · TE	MISS	33%	+202	+260DK
Malik NabersNYG · WR	MISS	31%	+220	+250FanDuel
Isaiah LikelyNYG · TE	MISS	31%	+221	+245BetRivers
Jordan AddisonMIN · WR	MISS	30%	+235	+300BetRivers
AJ BarnerSEA · TE	MISS	28%	+257	+265BetRivers
Michael MayerLV · TE	MISS	25%	+295	+330BetRivers
Keenan AllenIND · WR	MISS	25%	+296	+360FanDuel
Carnell TateTEN · WR	MISS	25%	+297	+330DK
Alvin KamaraNO · RB	MISS	25%	+298	+350DK
Juwan JohnsonNO · TE	MISS	25%	+306	+310BetMGM
Malik WashingtonMIA · WR	MISS	24%	+315	+400DK
Josh DownsIND · WR	MISS	23%	+327	+370DK
Brock PurdySF · QB	MISS	22%	+345	+375BetMGM
Isaac TeSlaaDET · WR	MISS	22%	+351	+410FanDuel
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR	MISS	22%	+356	+425DK
Jahan DotsonATL · WR	MISS	21%	+371	+410FanDuel
George HolaniSEA · RB	MISS	21%	+375	+440FanDuel
Cooper KuppSEA · WR	MISS	20%	+394	+420BetRivers
Rashod BatemanBAL · WR	MISS	19%	+422	+475DK
Jaylin NoelHOU · WR	MISS	19%	+434	+450DK
Bryce LanceNO · WR	MISS	15%	+587	+650FanDuel
Malachi FieldsNYG · WR	MISS	15%	+589	+750FanDuel
Foster MoreauHOU · TE	MISS	14%	+590	+650BetMGM
Laquon TreadwellIND · WR	MISS	13%	+647	+750DK
Noah FantNO · TE	MISS	13%	+656	+750BetMGM
Jordan LoveGB · QB	MISS	12%	+750	+825BetMGM
Geno SmithNYJ · QB	MISS	12%	+752	+850FanDuel
Mitchell EvansCAR · TE	MISS	12%	+755	+850BetRivers
Emmett JohnsonKC · RB	MISS	11%	+775	+1000BetRivers
Michael Penix Jr.ATL · QB	MISS	9%	+964	+1150BetMGM
Nate AdkinsDEN · TE	MISS	9%	+968	+1150BetRivers
Brycen TremayneCAR · WR	MISS	9%	+987	+1200DK
Gavin BartholomewMIN · TE	MISS	9%	+993	+1200BetMGM
Aaron RodgersPIT · QB	MISS	9%	+1012	+1300BetRivers
Tai FeltonMIN · WR	MISS	9%	+1026	+1200FanDuel
Myles PriceMIN · WR	MISS	8%	+1093	+1200FanDuel
Austin HooperATL · TE	MISS	8%	+1197	+1200DK
Jonathan MingoDAL · WR	MISS	7%	+1276	+1300BetMGM
Charlie WoernerATL · TE	MISS	7%	+1319	+1650BetMGM
Malik BensonLV · WR	MISS	7%	+1333	+1700DK
Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WR	MISS	7%	+1371	+1500DK
Ian ThomasLV · TE	MISS	7%	+1381	+1700DK
Connor HeywardLV · RB	MISS	7%	+1384	+1400DK
Hunter LuepkeDAL · RB	MISS	7%	+1384	+1400DK
LaJohntay WesterBAL · WR	MISS	6%	+1489	+1800FanDuel
David MooreCAR · WR	MISS	6%	+1571	+2000DK
Brevin JordanHOU · TE	MISS	6%	+1675	+2200DK
Dareke YoungLV · WR	MISS	5%	+2117	+2500BetMGM
Adam PrenticeDEN · RB	MISS	4%	+2239	+2500BetRivers
Brady RussellSEA · RB	MISS	4%	+2364	+3000DK
DJ HermanMIA · RB	MISS	4%	+2399	+3000FanDuel
AJ DillonCAR · RB	VOID	12%	+751	+900FanDuel
Emari DemercadoDAL · RB	VOID	9%	+1004	+1100BetOnline
Olamide ZaccheausATL · WR	VOID	9%	+1023	+1200DK
Nicholas SingletonTEN · RB	VOID	8%	+1218	+1300FanDuel
Demond ClaiborneMIN · RB	VOID	7%	+1235	+1600FanDuel
Marlin KleinHOU · TE	VOID	4%	+2158	+2200DK
Jalen TolbertMIA · WR	VOID	4%	+2162	+2500DK

Check news 3 hits · 40 picks

Player	Result	Model	Fair	Best price
Dameon PiercePHI · RB	HIT	37%	+171	+550DK
Cam SkatteboNYG · RB	HIT	31%	+219	+370DK
Xavier HutchinsonHOU · WR	HIT	24%	+309	+650DK
Aaron JonesMIN · RB	MISS	56%	-129	+145DK
MarShawn LloydGB · RB	MISS	32%	+217	+425DK
Pierre StrongGB · RB	MISS	30%	+235	+400FanDuel
Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR	MISS	30%	+235	+380DK
Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR	MISS	29%	+244	+400FanDuel
Kayshon BoutteHOU · WR	MISS	18%	+467	+700FanDuel
Jacoby BrissettARI · QB	MISS	16%	+543	+850BetRivers
Joe BurrowCIN · QB	MISS	15%	+579	+800DK
Jared GoffDET · QB	MISS	15%	+586	+1050BetRivers
Mitchell TinsleyCIN · WR	MISS	14%	+594	+1200DK
Sione VakiDET · RB	MISS	14%	+596	+1000DK
John Metchie IIICAR · WR	MISS	14%	+598	+1000DK
Tim PatrickNYJ · WR	MISS	14%	+601	+1300BetMGM
Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · WR	MISS	12%	+716	+1550BetMGM
Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · WR	MISS	12%	+753	+1150BetMGM
Devontez WalkerBAL · WR	MISS	11%	+775	+1400FanDuel
Matthew StaffordLA · QB	MISS	11%	+809	+2000FanDuel
Tyler GoodsonDAL · RB	MISS	11%	+821	+1100DK
Kirk CousinsLV · QB	MISS	9%	+967	+2000DK
Seth McGowanIND · RB	MISS	8%	+1094	+1500BetRivers
Ashton DulinIND · WR	MISS	8%	+1096	+1600BetRivers
Teagan QuitorianoARI · TE	MISS	8%	+1146	+1700BetRivers
Jeremy RuckertNYJ · TE	MISS	8%	+1173	+1900DK
Bo MeltonGB · WR	MISS	8%	+1195	+1700FanDuel
Reggie VirgilARI · WR	MISS	7%	+1239	+2000DK
Travis HomerPIT · RB	MISS	7%	+1257	+2500DK
Lew Nichols IIIPIT · RB	MISS	7%	+1375	+4000FanDuel
J. Michael SturdivantGB · WR	MISS	7%	+1424	+2200DK
Johnny MundtPHI · TE	MISS	6%	+1460	+2500DK
Chris BlairATL · WR	MISS	5%	+1900	+3000FanDuel
Jelani WoodsNYJ · TE	MISS	5%	+1900	+2500DK
Michael BurtonCLE · RB	MISS	4%	+2362	+6000DK
Tylan WallaceCLE · WR	MISS	4%	+2368	+4000FanDuel
Jake BriningstoolKC · TE	MISS	4%	+2372	+3500DK
Patrick RicardNYG · RB	MISS	4%	+2400	+5000FanDuel
Jackson MeeksDET · TE	VOID	6%	+1556	+4000BetMGM
Treyton WelchNO · TE	VOID	4%	+2389	+5000FanDuel

Week 7 by price band

Price band	W-L	Hit	Units	At price	Priced	95% range
-131 or shorter	3-1	75.0%	+1.73u	+1.14u	4	30.1-95.4%
-130 to -116	0-1	0.0%	-1.00u	-1.00u	1	0.0-79.3%
-115 to -106	4-0	100.0%	+3.64u	+3.53u	4	51.0-100.0%
-105 to +105	1-0	100.0%	+0.91u	+1.05u	1	20.7-100.0%
Unpriced	48-64	42.9%	-20.36u	-20.36u	0	34.1-52.1%
All leans	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	-15.64u	10	37.3-54.7%

Week by week

Every graded live week. Units are 1u flat at -110; the bar is the running total.

Week	W-L	Units	Running	Running total
Week 7	56-66	-15.09u	-15.09u

Locked vs shadow

LOCKED = the live-test pick. SHADOW = the early reads, tracked as their own lane, kept apart from the locked picks.

Stage	W-L	Hit	Units	At price	Priced	95% range
Locked	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	-15.64u	10	37.3-54.7%
Shadow	0-0	—	+0.00u	+0.00u	0	—

By price band

Every pick scored by the price taken (the juice on our side). Unpriced = no book price at our line.

Price band	W-L	Hit	Units	At price	Priced	95% range
-131 or shorter	3-1	75.0%	+1.73u	+1.14u	4	30.1-95.4%
-130 to -116	0-1	0.0%	-1.00u	-1.00u	1	0.0-79.3%
-115 to -106	4-0	100.0%	+3.64u	+3.53u	4	51.0-100.0%
-105 to +105	1-0	100.0%	+0.91u	+1.05u	1	20.7-100.0%
Unpriced	48-64	42.9%	-20.36u	-20.36u	0	34.1-52.1%
All leans	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	-15.64u	10	37.3-54.7%

Performance by category

Live = the picks we tested live (Week 7), graded at the line taken. Back-check = the same fixed rules on past DraftKings closes (Weeks 4-6), after the fact. Shadow = the first-seen early reads (from Week 8). Units = 1u flat at -110. Still a test: nothing is official until a lane clears the go-live gate.

Market

Market	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units	Back-check W-L	Back-check hit	Back-check units	Shadow W-L	Shadow hit	Shadow units
All picks	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
Receptions	18-15	54.5%	+1.36u	54-42	56.2%	+7.09u	—	—	—
Rec Yds	16-15	51.6%	-0.45u	48-46	51.1%	-2.36u	—	—	—
Rush Yds	5-4	55.6%	+0.55u	19-19	50.0%	-1.73u	—	—	—
Longest Rec	3-8	27.3%	-5.27u	15-16	48.4%	-2.36u	—	—	—
Carries	2-0	100.0%	+1.82u	15-11	57.7%	+2.64u	—	—	—
Pass TDs	5-2	71.4%	+2.55u	8-6	57.1%	+1.27u	—	—	—
Pass Yds	1-4	20.0%	-3.09u	8-6	57.1%	+1.27u	—	—	—
Pass+Rush Yds	1-4	20.0%	-3.09u	7-6	53.8%	+0.36u	—	—	—
INTs	3-4	42.9%	-1.27u	4-6	40.0%	-2.36u	—	—	—
Longest Rush	2-0	100.0%	+1.82u	6-3	66.7%	+2.45u	—	—	—
Rush+Rec Yds	0-2	0.0%	-2.00u	3-2	60.0%	+0.73u	—	—	—
Completions	0-4	0.0%	-4.00u	2-0	100.0%	+1.82u	—	—	—
Pass Att	0-3	0.0%	-3.00u	2-1	66.7%	+0.82u	—	—	—
Longest Pass	0-1	0.0%	-1.00u	0-2	0.0%	-2.00u	—	—	—

Over / under

Over / under	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units	Back-check W-L	Back-check hit	Back-check units	Shadow W-L	Shadow hit	Shadow units
All picks	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
Under	39-29	57.4%	+6.45u	114-93	55.1%	+10.64u	—	—	—
Over	17-37	31.5%	-21.55u	77-73	51.3%	-3.00u	—	—	—

Position

Position	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units	Back-check W-L	Back-check hit	Back-check units	Shadow W-L	Shadow hit	Shadow units
All picks	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
WR	15-18	45.5%	-4.36u	62-50	55.4%	+6.36u	—	—	—
RB	17-13	56.7%	+2.45u	58-56	50.9%	-3.27u	—	—	—
QB	12-24	33.3%	-13.09u	46-34	57.5%	+7.82u	—	—	—
TE	12-11	52.2%	-0.09u	25-26	49.0%	-3.27u	—	—	—

Home / away

Home / away	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units	Back-check W-L	Back-check hit	Back-check units	Shadow W-L	Shadow hit	Shadow units
All picks	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
Away	34-41	45.3%	-10.09u	104-79	56.8%	+15.55u	—	—	—
Home	22-25	46.8%	-5.00u	87-87	50.0%	-7.91u	—	—	—

Favorite / underdog

Favorite / underdog	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units	Back-check W-L	Back-check hit	Back-check units	Shadow W-L	Shadow hit	Shadow units
All picks	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
Favorite	23-40	36.5%	-19.09u	88-100	46.8%	-20.00u	—	—	—
Underdog	33-26	55.9%	+4.00u	103-66	60.9%	+27.64u	—	—	—

Kickoff slot

Kickoff slot	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units	Back-check W-L	Back-check hit	Back-check units	Shadow W-L	Shadow hit	Shadow units
All picks	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
Sunday day	39-51	43.3%	-15.55u	125-109	53.4%	+4.64u	—	—	—
Primetime / standalone	13-12	52.0%	-0.18u	52-43	54.7%	+4.27u	—	—	—
International	4-3	57.1%	+0.64u	14-14	50.0%	-1.27u	—	—	—

Turf / grass

Turf / grass	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units	Back-check W-L	Back-check hit	Back-check units	Shadow W-L	Shadow hit	Shadow units
All picks	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
Grass	21-33	38.9%	-13.91u	113-96	54.1%	+6.73u	—	—	—
Turf	31-30	50.8%	-1.82u	78-70	52.7%	+0.91u	—	—	—
Unknown	4-3	57.1%	+0.64u	—	—	—	—	—	—

Defense matchup

Defense matchup	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units	Back-check W-L	Back-check hit	Back-check units	Shadow W-L	Shadow hit	Shadow units
All picks	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
Tough defense (23+)	27-9	75.0%	+15.55u	82-72	53.2%	+2.55u	—	—	—
Soft defense (top 10)	17-25	40.5%	-9.55u	67-49	57.8%	+11.91u	—	—	—
No matchup data	5-18	21.7%	-13.45u	28-24	53.8%	+1.45u	—	—	—
Middle	7-14	33.3%	-7.64u	14-21	40.0%	-8.27u	—	—	—

Grade

Grade	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units	Back-check W-L	Back-check hit	Back-check units	Shadow W-L	Shadow hit	Shadow units
All picks	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
Grade B	45-56	44.6%	-15.09u	174-149	53.9%	+9.18u	—	—	—
Grade A	11-10	52.4%	+0.00u	17-17	50.0%	-1.55u	—	—	—

Line move

Line move	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units	Back-check W-L	Back-check hit	Back-check units	Shadow W-L	Shadow hit	Shadow units
All picks	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
No move	34-35	49.3%	-4.09u	85-79	51.8%	-1.73u	—	—	—
Moved against us	16-18	47.1%	-3.45u	60-62	49.2%	-7.45u	—	—	—
Moved with us	6-13	31.6%	-7.55u	46-25	64.8%	+16.82u	—	—	—

Odds band

Odds band	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units	Back-check W-L	Back-check hit	Back-check units	Shadow W-L	Shadow hit	Shadow units
All picks	56-66	45.9%	-15.09u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
Unpriced	48-64	42.9%	-20.36u	191-166	53.5%	+7.64u	—	—	—
-115 to -106	4-0	100.0%	+3.64u	—	—	—	—	—	—
-131 or shorter	3-1	75.0%	+1.73u	—	—	—	—	—	—
-105 to +105	1-0	100.0%	+0.91u	—	—	—	—	—	—
-130 to -116	0-1	0.0%	-1.00u	—	—	—	—	—	—

Research lanes

Rules found in the 2026 Week 2-7 data (every DraftKings line, not just our leans), written down on Oct 29 before any Week 8 game and graded from Week 8 on. "Found on" is the record they were found on: context, never counted.

Lane	Found on (Wk 2-7)	Live W-L	Live hit	Live units
Turf UNDERvenue surface filled per stadium from its latest known surface (nflverse blanks half of 2026)	1343-1026 56.7% (BH survivor unclustered; not with game clustering)	—	—	—
Turf UNDER, no rush propsgrass non-rush unders 50.7%	1052-808 56.6% (cut chosen after seeing the data)	—	—	—
Sunday day games UNDERstandalone (TNF/SNF/MNF) unders 50.1%	2414-1957 55.2%	—	—	—
TE Longest Reception UNDERunpriced market: -110 assumed	145-90 61.7%	—	—	—
Longest Reception UNDER, team total <= 20unpriced market: -110 assumed	152-95 61.5%	—	—	—
Rush props UNDER (yds / att / longest)RE-OPENED by Rob 2026-10-29 (the 2026-10-01 ⛔ 'generic rush UNDER' verdict predates wk4-7: 159-111 +30.1u at real DK prices since)	727-548 57.0%	—	—	—
Rush Yds UNDERRE-OPENED by Rob 2026-10-29, registered the same day before any wk08 game	310-225 57.9% at the close; at real DK prices 169-114 +36.0u	—	—	—
Our UNDER leans on the underdog teamthe engine adds ~+11 pts over the dog-team market under rate (54.0%)	96-52 64.9% at the close wk4-7 (fails BH); live wk07 freeze: dogs 33-26, favorites 23-40	—	—	—
Our leans with hit-rate + matchup supporttrend+hit leans went 73-95	126-89 58.6% (fails BH)	—	—	—

Checklist

2 of 7 LIVE. LIVE = working now · needs-action = not there yet · blocked = needs a key, an account or data. Nothing shows green until it is real.

LIVE TEST

LIVE
Picks locked before kickoff every week
Week 7: live 20-55h before kickoff
LIVE
Graded from official stats
nflverse play-by-play, spot-checked vs the ESPN box score
needs-action
A price + sportsbook on every pick
Week 7: 16 of 122 picks priced
needs-action
100 live picks in one lane
closest: UNDER 68/100
needs-action
A record a coin-flip bettor at -110 matches under 5% of the time
62-38 or better at 100 picks (-110)
needs-action
Beats the closing line more often than it loses to it
beat 30 · even 61 · worse 31
needs-action
Rob's go: the official record starts that week
after a lane is READY